Bitcoin [BTC] recently saw an attack of the bear move the price downwards to the $6,400 range, testing crucial support levels. Even now, the coin continues to rest on one of these supports, with bearish pressure threatening the precarious position of Bitcoin’s price.
The short-term outlook for Bitcoin shows that there is an uptrend from $6,220 – $6,395, with an accompanying movement from $6,330 – $6,530. This was the pattern that predicted a bearish movement, which then saw the price move down from $6,530 – $6,485 – $6,405. A crucial support is present at $6,390, with a secondary support line at $6,220. A resistance is present at $6,530 as well.
The RSI is staying around the lower zone and might plunge into oversold to indicate a buying opportunity for the bulls of the market.
The Relative Vigor Index set for a bearish turn, as seen by the movement of the graph towards the downwards direction.
The Bollinger Bands have widened owing to the recent drop in price and might contract with decreasing volatility in the price of the coin.
The long-term outlook for Bitcoin shows that a support uptrend has presented itself at the $6,270 – $6,405 marks, with the dominant downtrend still in power since the month of May, as seen by the price movement from $9,800 – $8,390 – $6,505. Supports are present at $6,145 and $5,850, with resistances at $6,525, $6,750, $7,335 and $8,385.
The Aroon indicator shows a reversal in the downtrend seen in the near past, with the uptrend beginning to lose power.
The MACD is demonstrating a bullish crossover movement, as seen by the movement of the MACD line above the signal line.
The Parabolic SAR is bearish, which is evidenced by the presence of the dots above the candlesticks.
The price of Bitcoin seems to be headed for a short-term retracement before falling back to established support levels, as the bear does not seem eager to reduce the force of its attacks on the coin. Supports are present at $6,390 and $6,220.
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Bitcoin [BTC] Halving: CoinMetrics pegs top-crypto to rise above $20,000 peak in late-2021
With a year left for the highly anticipated Bitcoin [BTC] halving, many expect the price of the top-cryptocurrency to surge prior to May 2020. Analysts have previously opined that three months to one year before the halving does the price of the cryptocurrency move up.
A new piece of research from the cryptocurrency analytics firm, CoinMetrics, suggested that in addition to the precursor pump, Bitcoin [BTC] will reach its “local peak” 18 months after the halving.
CoinMetrics charts the price of the top coin, divided based on the 2012 and 2016 halving, showing a noticeable trend. A little more than a year after the first halving when the 210,001 block was mined, the price of Bitcoin surged above $1,000 for the first time, in December 2013 to be precise.
Next, During the July 2016 halving, the coin was trading at just above $600 and within the suggested period of 18 months, the top virtual currency saw its second peak. On 17 December, the coin reached a never-before-seen high of over $19,700 as the Chicago Futures exchanges embraced the digital assets market.
With the price of Bitcoin over $5,000 for the first time in over four months, and the precursor halving bulls on the horizon, the price could surge. Furthermore, based on CoinMetrics’ inference, Bitcoin will see its third peak, higher than $20,000, by the close of 2021, eighteen months after the May 2020 halving.
The halving protocol was placed in the original whitepaper to thwart inflationary pressure that would arise with more blocks mined and more Bitcoins supplied. Historical charts prove that this objective has been adhered to, with a constant drop in the inflation rate with the two previous halvings.
In 2012, the inflation was over 25 percent and immediately after the miner reward reduction to 25 BTC per block, it dropped to under 15 percent. A bracket between 7 percent and just under 20 percent sustained until the second halving in July 2016.
The second halving saw a decline in inflation rate to under 5 percent for the first time in the coin’s history, which has been maintained till today. CoinMetrics pegs the inflation, at press time, to be 3.8 percent. Furthermore, if the historic trend continues, the inflation rate would drop by more than 50 percent to 1.8 percent in May 2020.
Based on the current market and using a historical outlook, analysts suggested that 2019 will be the year of building the industry while the price effect will manifest next year, with the halving being at the very core. Many believe that institutional interest on the rise and the growing crypto-adoption surge could result in a bullish 2020.
Charlie Lee, BTCC’s co-founder suggested in December 2018 that Bitcoin’s next rally will begin in “late 2020”, months after the halving and would peak in December 2021 at 333,000. However, the precursor to this rise would be a January 2019 bottom of $2,500 which did not materialize.
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