Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, is no longer down in the dumps. The prices of Bitcoin have increased dramatically by more than 8% as of December 18, and have been up there for quite a while.
The king of the cryptocurrencies has come out of its hiding, causing every other cryptocurrency to follow its lead, with some increasing more than Bitcoin in terms of percentage increase of prices.
The prices of Bitcoin in a 24-hour chart shows a plateau-ish shape that has developed over the course of a day. The prices on December 17, 2018, at 12:00 UTC, were at $3,283 and the market cap also held itself steady at $57.2 billion.
The prices saw a gradual increase, which led it to climb as high as $3,450. Post this point, the prices held their ground steady without faltering. Bitcoin saw a price increase of ~9.53%, which was the highest Bitcoin ever reached in the 24-hour time frame mentioned above in quite a while. The prices gave another go at the rally, but exhausted again at $3,597.
Eventually, the prices at the end of this time frame are holding at $3,540, with a market cap at $61.7 billion.
Bitmex is the highest contributor to the trading volume for Bitcoin, which only trades BTC derivatives. It contributes a whopping $2.42 billion of the total trading volume, which is at $5.86, making Bitmain contribute ~41.29% of the total trading volume.
The volume for the rise in Bitcoin doesn’t indicate a significant amount, which could further mean that this is probably not the bull run that everybody in the community thinks it is.
As seen from the chart, there is a major resistance at ~$3,775 range and even if BTC does decide to take off now, without actually reaching the sub $3,000 range, it wouldn’t necessarily have the ‘juice’ to have a strong rally. As a result, it would have an ephemeral run or a ‘fake-out’.
A crypto-trade UB tweeted similar ideas and commented:
“$BTC – This is one of the only scenarios I would long.
If BTC breaks back into the previous daily range (3770 – 4382) without hitting sub 3ks first I’ll be mildly bullish.
Until then, I’m comfortable shorting bounces.
Overall, I still think we see sub 3ks first.
Another crypto-trader Erik Korz replied to UB saying:
“Huge fan of your analysis, as you know. But I’ve got slightly different views here.
This is the most bullish PA we’ve seen in a little while and I’m looking for longs above 3430.
If we lose that, I’ll surrender and admit you’re right and short to sub 3k :)”
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Bitcoin’s on-chain/off-chain valuation indicators the key point of focus as coin heads to $13,000
With the rise in Bitcoin’s price, the rest of the cryptocurrency market has followed suit by displaying a green trend across the board. In a recent series of tweets by popular cryptocurrency analyst Adam Tache, users were informed about the top Bitcoin on-chain and off-chain valuation indicators, derived from on-chain valuation models.
The analysis touched on the Mayer Multiple created by dividing the price by the all-important – 200 day moving average. The current average Mayer Multiple stands at a figure of 1.39, which may climb higher. Looking at previous figures, the normal Mayer Multiple figures stated that if the value shoots up to 2.4, then Bitcoin eventually retraces back to a comfortable 1.5. The Mayer Multiple is usually considered as the original indicator used to clock the valuation of Bitcoin.
Another major indicator discussed in the thread was the NVT Ratio invented by Willy Woo, Partner at Adaptive Fund. The indicator is used to calculate Bitcoin’s prominence or value in the cryptocurrency space by evaluating the amount transacted on the blockchain as a “proxy for investment flow and bear and bull market cycles.”
At the moment, the NVT ratio for Bitcoin is in an abnormal region compared to the start of previous bullish patterns. The NVT ratio was above the “bear market” separator, which meant that the cryptocurrency was overbought. When Bitcoin is overbought, it usually means that the buying pressure is much higher than the selling pressure. Adam Tache opined,
“NVT signaling overbought is likely due to a number of factors — namely the proliferation of exchange-based, purely off-chain txs driving short-term price action.”
The analysis also pointed out the liveliness of the Bitcoin indicator created by Tamas Blummer. The indicator showed the inverse count of lost or ‘HODLed’ Bitcoin, while stating that when the ratio increases, long-terms holders of the cryptocurrency decrease their positions. The indicator conveyed accumulation of Bitcoin when the ratio decreased.
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