Bitcoin bulls aim for $100K again, but here’s what could stand in their way
Bitcoin surged to hit a one-month high as bullish sentiments soared across the charts.
- Bitcoin’s bullish sentiments, with Futures and Options Open Interest hitting a monthly high.
- Can BTC push to $100,000 again?
Over the past day, Bitcoin [BTC] surged by 6.33% to hit a one-month high of $93,756, at press time.
Over the same period, investors have shown extreme bullishness. Notably, at the time of writing, the Put/Call Open interest was at 0.59.
The ratio highlights trader sentiment, with 1.7 call contracts for every 1 put contract. This translates to $19.3 billion in Call Open Interest, compared to $11.5 billion in put open interest.
Such a ratio suggests traders are more bullish than bearish, with calls positioning faster than puts.
Additionally, options interest surged from $28.5 billion to $30.7 billion, a $2.2 billion increase within a day. This marks the highest level since March, aligning with the rise in price and Futures open interest.
Meanwhile, Futures Open Interest climbed from $36.2 billion to $38.6 billion, gaining $2.4 billion in less than 36 hours.
With strong bullish sentiments, the question is whether the uptrend will continue.
Will BTC’s current uptrend last?
Despite Bitcoin’s strong surge over the past day, Binance investors remain skeptical about its sustainability. Currently, Binance Funding Rates have turned negative, standing at -0.006, despite the upward price momentum.
Since the start of this cycle, such low Funding Rates have only been observed twice:
Firstly, on the 16th of October 2023, when BTC surged from $28,000 to $73,000. And on the 9th of September 2024, when BTC rallied from $57,000 to $108,000.
These historical instances hint at the potential for significant price movements under similar conditions.
This shows that, when the Funding Rate on Binance dips to such levels, prices tend to rise as investors shorting the market suffer from a short squeeze. As market prices rise, shorts rush to close their positions, thus adding to buy pressure, which eventually leads to a rally.
Therefore, according to AMBCrypto’s analysis, the current rally is set to continue as it’s backed by massive demand.
For starters, looking at Exchange Netflow, it has remained negative over the past day, hitting a weekly low of -9.1k over the past day and -1.3k on daily timeframes.
Such a decline reflects strong accumulation, with exchange outflows outpacing inflows. As such, there are more buyers in the market than sellers, signaling strong bullish sentiments.
Short-term holders (STHs) are now back in profit, with their realized price at $91K, while BTC trades above $93K. The STH SOPR has exceeded 1, indicating profitability and lowering the chances of a panic sell-off.
As STHs realize profits and long-term holders (LTHs) remain steady, the market shows strength for further growth. If current conditions persist, BTC could reclaim $96K, setting the stage for an attempt at $100K.
However, if STHs decide to sell after a month underwater, BTC may correct and retrace to $87K.
