The collective cryptocurrency market has seen varied movement since the beginning of the week, with the market cap dropping to $120.7 billion. Bitcoin Cash [BCH] managed to add over $150 million to its market cap during the bullish wave last week, but since coins like Litecoin [LTC] and EOS [EOS] saw massive double-digit price surges, BCH was pegged down to the sixth spot on the global coin ladder.
At press time, value of Bitcoin Cash has fallen by 2.36 percent to $121.64 against the US dollar in the past 24 hours, while the coin’s market cap has now declined to $2.14 billion.
In terms of exchange dominance, LBank takes the top-spot with $22.39 million or 8.58 percent of Bitcoin Cash volume held in the trading pair BCH/BTC. Following up is P2PB2B2 and BW with 6.06 percent and 5.97 percent of BCH volume held, in the trading pairs BCH/USD and BCHABC/USDT respectively.
The one-hour Bitcoin Cash price has two successive uptrends followed by a brief period of stabilization. The uptrends began on February 6, with the price first increasing from $111.53 to $117.29, followed by a price increase from $115.09 to $128.92. The recent downtrend extends from $126.35 to $122.97.
Bitcoin Cash finds immediate support at $118.30, while the coin’s immediate resistance level stands at $126.08, which the coin dipped below earlier this week.
The Bollinger Band indicates that following the bullish swing, which saw the volatility shoot up, the coin has been fairly stable. The Moving Average line indicates that the coin is going through a bearish spree.
The MACD line shows that the coin is going through a bearish spree since 1000 UTC on 10 February.
The Relative Strength Index points to a fall in the sentiments of investors towards Bitcoin Cash. The RSI of the coin has dipped from a high of 61.52 at the beginning of the week to 42.01 at press time.
The one-day chart of Bitcoin Cash has been marred by the bearish forces of the hardfork. However, over the past month the coin has been going through a relatively stable price movement, with the price between the $107-$134 bracket. Bitcoin Cash is still in the downtrend, beginning in November and extending from $624.91 to $122.81.
Bitcoin Cash finds immediate support at $107.32 which the coin hit at the end of January, the immediate resistance of the coin stands at $132.05.
The Parabolic SAR indicates that despite the short-term decline, the coin is still trading in a bullish market as the dotted lines are aligned below the coin’s trend line.
The Fisher Transform line, however, indicates a cross-over from the bulls to the bears as the Fisher line has been overtaken by the Trigger line.
The Chaikin Money Flow tool shows that investors are still putting their money into Bitcoin Cash as the CMF line is above 0.
The Bitcoin Cash bulls of the previous week are still managing to hold on, even as the price continues to slip. In the short-term, the trend is bearish with the Bollinger Band indicating that volatility will not be very high, indicating a slide rather than a tumble. In the long term however, the Parabolic SAR and the Chaikin Money Flow tool still indicate that the market is bullish, with only the Fisher Transform indicator pointing to a recent bearish slip-up.
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Bitcoin [BTC] Halving: CoinMetrics pegs top-crypto to rise above $20,000 peak in late-2021
With a year left for the highly anticipated Bitcoin [BTC] halving, many expect the price of the top-cryptocurrency to surge prior to May 2020. Analysts have previously opined that three months to one year before the halving does the price of the cryptocurrency move up.
A new piece of research from the cryptocurrency analytics firm, CoinMetrics, suggested that in addition to the precursor pump, Bitcoin [BTC] will reach its “local peak” 18 months after the halving.
CoinMetrics charts the price of the top coin, divided based on the 2012 and 2016 halving, showing a noticeable trend. A little more than a year after the first halving when the 210,001 block was mined, the price of Bitcoin surged above $1,000 for the first time, in December 2013 to be precise.
Next, During the July 2016 halving, the coin was trading at just above $600 and within the suggested period of 18 months, the top virtual currency saw its second peak. On 17 December, the coin reached a never-before-seen high of over $19,700 as the Chicago Futures exchanges embraced the digital assets market.
With the price of Bitcoin over $5,000 for the first time in over four months, and the precursor halving bulls on the horizon, the price could surge. Furthermore, based on CoinMetrics’ inference, Bitcoin will see its third peak, higher than $20,000, by the close of 2021, eighteen months after the May 2020 halving.
The halving protocol was placed in the original whitepaper to thwart inflationary pressure that would arise with more blocks mined and more Bitcoins supplied. Historical charts prove that this objective has been adhered to, with a constant drop in the inflation rate with the two previous halvings.
In 2012, the inflation was over 25 percent and immediately after the miner reward reduction to 25 BTC per block, it dropped to under 15 percent. A bracket between 7 percent and just under 20 percent sustained until the second halving in July 2016.
The second halving saw a decline in inflation rate to under 5 percent for the first time in the coin’s history, which has been maintained till today. CoinMetrics pegs the inflation, at press time, to be 3.8 percent. Furthermore, if the historic trend continues, the inflation rate would drop by more than 50 percent to 1.8 percent in May 2020.
Based on the current market and using a historical outlook, analysts suggested that 2019 will be the year of building the industry while the price effect will manifest next year, with the halving being at the very core. Many believe that institutional interest on the rise and the growing crypto-adoption surge could result in a bullish 2020.
Charlie Lee, BTCC’s co-founder suggested in December 2018 that Bitcoin’s next rally will begin in “late 2020”, months after the halving and would peak in December 2021 at 333,000. However, the precursor to this rise would be a January 2019 bottom of $2,500 which did not materialize.
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