Bitcoin Cash [BCH], the fourth-largest cryptocurrency has been pushed down due to the bearish market forces yet again. The collective cryptocurrency market fell by a massive $5 billion over the weekend and since correcting forces have not stepped in yet, the market cap is languishing at $118 billion, its lowest since mid-December.
At press time, BCH has declined marginally against the US dollar in terms of 24-hour price change, however, the market cap of the coin has fallen to $2.14 billion, just $20 million ahead of EOS [EOS], in the fifth place.
In terms of exchange-volume dominance, Bitcoin Cash [BCH] is being traded the most on P2PB2B with the following three trading pairs: BCH/USD, BCH/ETH, and BCH/BTC accounting for the following share: 8.24 percent, 7.51 percent, and 7.43 percent respectively. The next two exchanges holding maximum BCH volumes are HitBTC and LBank.
The one-hour Bitcoin Cash trendline boasts two prominent downtrends with contrasting severities. The first occurring prior to last weekend extends from $130.02 to $127.2, the second beginning at the close of the weekend extended from $128.49 to $$121.47. A meager uptrend was also noticed from $127.16 to $129.5.
Bitcoin Cash’s immediate support level is pegged at $119.64, which the coin is hovering over. The immediate resistance level of the coin is $123.07, which the coin slipped below on 20 January. The other resistance and support level of the coin is at $130.43 and $125.37.
The Bollinger Bands point to a decline in the volatility of Bitcoin Cash, as the weekend’s price fluctuations have stabilized. The Moving Average line points to a bearish trend in the market.
The Fisher Transform indicator points to a bearish market as the Fisher line has overtaken the Trigger Line.
The Awesome Oscillator indicates that the Bitcoin Cash market has been taken over by the bears, as the AO line is below 0.
The one-day trend line boasts a significant downtrend during the Bitcoin Cash hardfork that split the coin in two and sent the market into a spiral. The first downtrend began prior to the hardfork and extended from $854.67 to $452.38, 47.06 percent decline, and the second one, post the November hardfork extended from $628.38 to $134.94, a whopping 78.52 percent decline.
The immediate key support level of the coin stands at $72.09, which the coin has not come close to since mid-December. The immediate key resistance level stands at $197.80, which the coin fell below at the beginning of the month. The previous support level stood at 411.52. The previous resistance levels were pegged at $650.38 and $628.38 respectively.
The Chaikin Money Flow points to withdrawal of money from Bitcoin Cash as the CMF line has dipped below 0.
The MACD Line points to a mildly bearish trend. Bitcoin Cash almost broke into a bullish territory at the beginning of the year but because of the bearish pressure, it failed to escape.
The Parabolic SAR points to a bearish market as the dotted line is aligned above Bitcoin Cash’s trend line.
In the short term, Bitcoin Cash [BCH] has severely declined as the week began, trading at a low of around $119.34, while last week it saw a high of $131.69. However, in the long-run, the bears have softened their grip on the BCH market, as the trend line looks to stabilize and major indicators point to only a marginal bearish momentum for the coin.
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Bitcoin [BTC] Halving: CoinMetrics pegs top-crypto to rise above $20,000 peak in late-2021
With a year left for the highly anticipated Bitcoin [BTC] halving, many expect the price of the top-cryptocurrency to surge prior to May 2020. Analysts have previously opined that three months to one year before the halving does the price of the cryptocurrency move up.
A new piece of research from the cryptocurrency analytics firm, CoinMetrics, suggested that in addition to the precursor pump, Bitcoin [BTC] will reach its “local peak” 18 months after the halving.
CoinMetrics charts the price of the top coin, divided based on the 2012 and 2016 halving, showing a noticeable trend. A little more than a year after the first halving when the 210,001 block was mined, the price of Bitcoin surged above $1,000 for the first time, in December 2013 to be precise.
Next, During the July 2016 halving, the coin was trading at just above $600 and within the suggested period of 18 months, the top virtual currency saw its second peak. On 17 December, the coin reached a never-before-seen high of over $19,700 as the Chicago Futures exchanges embraced the digital assets market.
With the price of Bitcoin over $5,000 for the first time in over four months, and the precursor halving bulls on the horizon, the price could surge. Furthermore, based on CoinMetrics’ inference, Bitcoin will see its third peak, higher than $20,000, by the close of 2021, eighteen months after the May 2020 halving.
The halving protocol was placed in the original whitepaper to thwart inflationary pressure that would arise with more blocks mined and more Bitcoins supplied. Historical charts prove that this objective has been adhered to, with a constant drop in the inflation rate with the two previous halvings.
In 2012, the inflation was over 25 percent and immediately after the miner reward reduction to 25 BTC per block, it dropped to under 15 percent. A bracket between 7 percent and just under 20 percent sustained until the second halving in July 2016.
The second halving saw a decline in inflation rate to under 5 percent for the first time in the coin’s history, which has been maintained till today. CoinMetrics pegs the inflation, at press time, to be 3.8 percent. Furthermore, if the historic trend continues, the inflation rate would drop by more than 50 percent to 1.8 percent in May 2020.
Based on the current market and using a historical outlook, analysts suggested that 2019 will be the year of building the industry while the price effect will manifest next year, with the halving being at the very core. Many believe that institutional interest on the rise and the growing crypto-adoption surge could result in a bullish 2020.
Charlie Lee, BTCC’s co-founder suggested in December 2018 that Bitcoin’s next rally will begin in “late 2020”, months after the halving and would peak in December 2021 at 333,000. However, the precursor to this rise would be a January 2019 bottom of $2,500 which did not materialize.
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