The brief rise in the cryptocurrency market earlier this week sparked hopes of a market upheaval, but those hopes soon faded away. Major coins are now turning red, with the collective market cap looking to once again drop below $120 billion. Bitcoin Cash [BCH], now regaining its long-held fourth spot on the coin ladder has once again fallen, with the likes of Ethereum [ETH] and Tron [TRX] following suit, as the market correction begins.
Bitcoin Cash’s price has fallen below the $130-mark and is now trading at $128.41, with a market cap of $2.25 billion, less than $100 million ahead of EOS [EOS], in the fifth spot. The maximum trading volume emanates from the Singapore-based Huobi, accounting for $12.37 million or 6.48 percent with the BCH/USDT pair.
1-hourAs per the above one-hour chart, Bitcoin Cash has seen an immediate downtrend extending from $132.11 to $127.25 with an earlier significant downtrend of $161.44 to $132.78. Between the two downtrends, a brief uptrend was also witnessed from $123.42 to $128.58. The coin had a resistance point at $136.32, with two prominent previous support levels of $127.84, and $121.45. The immediate support point was recorded at $124.8.
The Bollinger Bands point to an increase in the volatility of the coin, as the trend switched from green to red, with the Moving Average line pointing to a bearish trend.
The Parabolic SAR indicates that the coin is in a bearish phase, with the dotted line aligned above the coin’s candlesticks.
The Awesome Oscillator points to a bearish market as the AO line has dipped below the zero-line, with the momentum rising.
1-dayThe one-day trend line is marred by memories of the November 2018 hardfork, which gave rise to the now tenth-ranked cryptocurrency, Bitcoin SV [BSV]. Two noticeable downtrends, prior to the hardfork, extended from $827.09 to $571.3 and $621.03 to $510.9 and the major post-hardfork downtrend ranging from $621.74 to $134.77. BCH enjoyed a minor uptrend during the close of 2018 from $79.98 to $144.77.
The resistance level of the coin prior to the hardfork was $628.83, with the coin currently trading 79.57 percent below the aforementioned point. BCH’s support level was last recorded at $75.04, which the coin has never breached.
The MACD line suggests that the coin tried to break into a bullish trend but was ensconced by the bears as the collective market declined.
The Relative Strength Indicator shows that the coin is being off-loaded by the investors as the BCH price looks to dip. At press time, the RSI was recorded at 39.27, closing in on the ‘oversold’ zone.
The Fisher Transform indicator shows that the Fisher line overtook the Trigger line at the end of the first week of the year to signal bearish movement.
Bitcoin Cash has been on a steep decline post its hardfork, with the price of the coin dropping by over 70 percent since November. Despite the end of the year hopes, the bears are closing in on the third most-prominent altcoin, with the chances of a reversal looking bleak.
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Bitcoin [BTC] Halving: CoinMetrics pegs top-crypto to rise above $20,000 peak in late-2021
With a year left for the highly anticipated Bitcoin [BTC] halving, many expect the price of the top-cryptocurrency to surge prior to May 2020. Analysts have previously opined that three months to one year before the halving does the price of the cryptocurrency move up.
A new piece of research from the cryptocurrency analytics firm, CoinMetrics, suggested that in addition to the precursor pump, Bitcoin [BTC] will reach its “local peak” 18 months after the halving.
CoinMetrics charts the price of the top coin, divided based on the 2012 and 2016 halving, showing a noticeable trend. A little more than a year after the first halving when the 210,001 block was mined, the price of Bitcoin surged above $1,000 for the first time, in December 2013 to be precise.
Next, During the July 2016 halving, the coin was trading at just above $600 and within the suggested period of 18 months, the top virtual currency saw its second peak. On 17 December, the coin reached a never-before-seen high of over $19,700 as the Chicago Futures exchanges embraced the digital assets market.
With the price of Bitcoin over $5,000 for the first time in over four months, and the precursor halving bulls on the horizon, the price could surge. Furthermore, based on CoinMetrics’ inference, Bitcoin will see its third peak, higher than $20,000, by the close of 2021, eighteen months after the May 2020 halving.
The halving protocol was placed in the original whitepaper to thwart inflationary pressure that would arise with more blocks mined and more Bitcoins supplied. Historical charts prove that this objective has been adhered to, with a constant drop in the inflation rate with the two previous halvings.
In 2012, the inflation was over 25 percent and immediately after the miner reward reduction to 25 BTC per block, it dropped to under 15 percent. A bracket between 7 percent and just under 20 percent sustained until the second halving in July 2016.
The second halving saw a decline in inflation rate to under 5 percent for the first time in the coin’s history, which has been maintained till today. CoinMetrics pegs the inflation, at press time, to be 3.8 percent. Furthermore, if the historic trend continues, the inflation rate would drop by more than 50 percent to 1.8 percent in May 2020.
Based on the current market and using a historical outlook, analysts suggested that 2019 will be the year of building the industry while the price effect will manifest next year, with the halving being at the very core. Many believe that institutional interest on the rise and the growing crypto-adoption surge could result in a bullish 2020.
Charlie Lee, BTCC’s co-founder suggested in December 2018 that Bitcoin’s next rally will begin in “late 2020”, months after the halving and would peak in December 2021 at 333,000. However, the precursor to this rise would be a January 2019 bottom of $2,500 which did not materialize.
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