Bitcoin could retrace to $72K, matching election lows, analysts predict
Here's why crypto options analytics platform believe BTC losses could extend.
- BTC could extend losses to last November’s U.S. elections levels of $72K.
- Cathie Wood projected better macro conditions in the second half of 2025.
Bitcoin’s [BTC] could slip below $75k in the near term amid renewed U.S. recession fears. In fact, Greg Madagini, Director at crypto options analytics platform Amberdata, projected that BTC could drop to $72K in the short term.
Bitcoin’s potential dip to $72K
In his weekly market report, Magadini stated,
“BTC prices look to be delivering a Bart Simpson pattern, which would target spot prices back to $72k, the Nov 5th election level.”
The Bart Simpson pattern refers to the formation of a sharp rise, marched by consolidation, and then a sharp retrace.
If the pattern is validated, BTC could tap its last November U.S. election level, like retracement seen amongst U.S. equities, added Magadini.
“Given that the SPX (S&P 500 Index) has now retraced back to election price levels, I think this pattern for spot BTC could be in the cards.”
A similar bearish outlook was shared by renowned technical analyst Peter Brandt, arguing that BTC structurally topped out and must reclaim $95K to turn market sentiment positive again.
Amid the U.S. recession fears, Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood assured that the U.S. economy would experience a ‘deflationary boom’ in the second half of 2025. She said,
“In our view, the market is discounting the last leg of a rolling recession, which will give the Trump Administration and the Powell Fed many more degrees of freedom than investors expect, setting up the U.S. economy for a deflationary boom in the second half of this year!”
Another positive update was the strong correlation between BTC and global money supply (M2). Most analysts have noted that BTC lags behind global M2, and the recent drawdown mirrored M2’s drop last quarter.
Since the indicator surged in Q1 2025, BTC could bounce back if the correlation holds.
Jon Consorti, head of growth at Theya Bitcoin, noted that with the BTC fear and greed index at typical ‘bottom’ levels, the cryptocurrency could be primed for a recovery.
“Fear and greed index at 20, a value reached in bull markets when bitcoin is on its way to making a local bottom.”
At press time, BTC was valued at $81.6K after a brief dip to $76K. The level was also a 50 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on a weekly chart and crucial support for past bull markets. It remains to be seen if it will hold in the short term.
