Bitcoin crosses $100K again, and the market asks – Is the rally real this time?

• Bitcoin whales are holding firm, but they’re not aggressively adding to their positions.
• Investors are taking a more “cautious” approach at these elevated price levels.

Crypto investor “greed” is out in full force as Bitcoin [BTC] surges back into six-figure territory. And this move isn’t just coincidence. 

On the 8th of May, in the wake of Trump’s “breakthrough” trade deal with the U.K., risk assets experienced a major rally. 

For a little context, the deal slashed tariffs on essential commodities, effectively unlocking the UK market for U.S. exports. The result? A powerful catalyst that sent BTC soaring.

Externally, momentum has been decisive. With fiscal conditions loosening, BTC rallied nearly 6.5% in less than 48 hours, reclaiming the $103,963 mark.

Internally, however, Bitcoin’s resilience will be put to the test.

The strategic pause of Bitcoin whales

Notably, 99.004% of Bitcoin addresses have a cost basis below BTC’s current spot price of $103,264, indicating that the vast majority of the market is in an unrealized profit position. 

In contrast, only 0.996% of addresses are underwater, having acquired Bitcoin above this level. This unrealized ratio is a key indicator to gauge the internal strength of Bitcoin’s current market structure.

Consider a 40x leveraged whale who entered at $94,088. This whale is now sitting pretty on a cool $2.8 million in unrealized gains. 

Given the bullish macro conditions, this whale is likely holding out for further upside, betting on even higher returns.

However, what’s interesting, though, is the absence of any major accumulation from whales holding more than 1,000 BTC during the period when Bitcoin eclipsed the $100k mark. 

A cautious approach in a bull market usually signals liquidity concerns or the view that the upside might be more slow and steady, with potential short-term pullbacks along the way.

Essentially, whales are playing the waiting game, waiting for confirmation that the bull trend has some staying power before putting more chips on the table.

Real bull or just a profit-taking breather?

While the lack of whale accumulation doesn’t necessarily spell a market top, other liquidity channels are flexing their muscles. 

Spot buying is strong, ETFs are seeing heavy capital inflows, and BTC reserves aren’t spiking – clear signals of institutional and spot-driven demand.

So, calling a top at $103k is jumping the gun. If this demand continues to roll in, a new all-time high might be just a matter of time. The bulls clearly aren’t finished yet.

That said, whales play a crucial role in the puzzle. Their lack of conviction could trigger a profit-taking cycle, rather than sustaining the bull run, causing liquidity squeezes.

Therefore, while momentum remains strong, expecting a linear rally is premature. A short-term correction is likely, creating overhead resistance before BTC can unlock higher targets.