- Bitcoin slipped below the STH RP of $92k, putting short-term holders in a tough spot
- Recovery signs emerged after the recent dip, but key support levels may be at risk
Bitcoin’s [BTC] short-term holders are currently navigating some stormy seas, with every investor who jumped on board within the last 155 days now facing the chilly waters of unrealized losses. Trading below the elusive $92k-mark – the Short-Term Holder Realized Price – Bitcoin has been struggling to surge again.
This level has historically acted as a springboard for bull runs. However, in this cycle, it’s been more of a sinking ship. And yet, after a rocky stretch, recovery in last 12 hours has sparked a glimmer of hope. Could this be the calm before the storm, or are we in for another wild ride?
The short-term holder pain point
The Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (STH NUPL) measures whether investors who bought Bitcoin in the last 155 days are in profit or loss.
When the STH NUPL turns negative, it signals capitulation among recent buyers, often coinciding with local bottoms. Historically, the STH Realized Price has acted as a crucial support level, as seen in 2017 and 2021.
Source: Alphractal
Right now, Bitcoin is well below the STH RP of $92k, marking a critical psychological shift.
If BTC fails to reclaim this level, short-term holders may continue to sell, amplifying downside pressure. However, past cycles have also shown that such breakdowns often precede strong recoveries.
Bitcoin’s short-term recovery
After a massive crash which saw BTC fall below $80k, Bitcoin staged a recovery over the last few hours. In fact, at the time of writing, it was trading at $85k.
The hourly chart revealed a strong bounce, while the RSI climbed from the oversold level to around 55.7 – Indicating renewed buying interest.
Source: TradingView
Additionally, the OBV turned upwards, alluding to a hike in accumulation following the sell-off.
This seemed to align with Bitcoin’s historical tendency to rebound after sharp corrections, particularly when the RSI recovers from a brief dip. However, BTC must hold above $85k to confirm strength. Failure to maintain this level could invite further selling pressure, making the next few hours critical for short-term price action.
What’s next for Bitcoin’s short-term holders?
Bitcoin’s next move hinges on its ability to reclaim key resistance levels. A bullish case emerges if BTC breaks past $92k and holds above it. This would likely restore confidence among short-term holders, shifting sentiment from uncertainty to renewed accumulation. The RSI’s press time positioning near 55 pointed to room for further upside if buying pressure persists.
Conversely, a bearish scenario unfolds if BTC faces rejection near $92k. Failure to reclaim this level could confirm a short-term downtrend, reinforcing profit-taking and adding selling pressure.
The OBV’s recent uptick needs to sustain itself. Otherwise, a downturn could see BTC retesting lower support levels, potentially revisiting $82k-$84k in the coming sessions.
