Bitcoin enters extreme fear at 11 – Is recovery possible post SpaceX IPO?

Bitcoin has dropped nearly 15% in June, an accelerated plunge following the reports of Strategy’s BTC sell-off. 

And market fears intensified as the community speculated that the recent Strategy’s dump could be just the beginning of a much bigger sell-off. As of writing, Strategy founder Michael Saylor had not confirmed or dispelled these fears. 

On this backdrop, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index reading dropped to an ‘extreme fear’ level of 11 as BTC dipped to $61.2K. 

When will the Bitcoin price recover?

Interestingly, the current market fear levels also marked the local bottoms in February and March.  But analysts projected that a sharp rebound may not happen instantly. 

Following the extended drop to its February low, analyst Peter Brandt said the next bottom may happen in October. 

As I see it, Bitcoin has met its initial target at the Feb low. This does not mean that BTC cannot work lower or have a terminal wash-out. I do not see a tradable low until October.

Worth pointing out that as BTC slipped lower and deepened year-to-date (YTD) losses to 25%, the stock market rallied.

On when the crypto asset could front a true recovery, Wintermute’s head of OTC trading, Jake Ostrovskis, said, 

What we need to get people interested in crypto and Bitcoin again is probably some of the air coming out of the AI trade.

Another analyst, Benjamin Cowen, echoed a similar sentiment, noting that such rotation could mark the true beginning of BTC’s next four-year cycle run. 

So far, Elon Musk’s SpaceX is expected to go public (initial public offering, IPO) on the 12th of June. For Anthropic (parent firm behind Claude), its public debut is expected in September, while OpenAI could also follow suit later in 2026. 

Sophisticated investors were also actively hedging for such an AI trade and its impact on BTC. 

According to Deribit, Options traders, mostly institutional investors, were increasingly hedging against a potential dip to the $50K and $45K area. In the past 24 hours, these levels were the most traded put contracts for the end of June expiry. 

Final SummaryThe The

• Bitcoin fear index is at levels last seen in February and March lows
• However, analysts cautioned that BTC’s recovery could remain elusive until expected AI IPOs are over