The whole cryptocurrency market has been eagerly waiting for the approval of a Bitcoin ETF by the U.S. Securities and Exchanges Commission [SEC]. The reason the exchange-traded product is of much importance to the community is that it is considered as the gateway to drive the institutional investors into the space.
So far, the commission has rejected all the proposed rule changes with the main reason stated as concerns over market manipulation. This statement by the commission has received several criticisms, including one from one of their commissioners, Hester Peirce, wherein she published a dissent for the disapproval.
Nonetheless, the VanEck Bitcoin ETF’s fate is yet to be decided by the commission. This ETF is considered as one of the most important rule change proposals in the cryptocurrency community. The decision is scheduled to be announced anywhere between the last week of February 2019 and March 2019. Additionally, this decision is the final one for the proposed rule change, following which, the financial institution, VanEck will have to go through the whole process again from the beginning.
Meltem Demirors, the CSO of CoinShares, spoke about whether the cryptocurrency community is going to see an approved Bitcoin ETF this year, in an interview with CNBC Crypto Trader. Anthony Pompliano, popularly known as Pomp, also opined on whether the commission is going to approve a Bitcoin ETF. He stated:
“I have no clue […] But, the thing I’m looking for in the ETF is everyone […] thought that the ETF gets approved and price is going to explode. I think it’d be really interesting if it gets approved and price goes sideways or actually goes down. It’s kind of a non-consensus thought right now, but something possible.”
Meltem Demirors, on the other hand, affirmed that the exchange-traded product is “absolutely not” going to be approved by the commission. She stated that this is mainly due to the current political climate in the United States, adding that there is no upside to the commission in approving the Bitcoin ETF, but only downside.
“I think people forget that the SEC, the CFTC these people are appointed, these are political positions. And so in this current sort of stalemate where you have Democratic House, the Republican Senate you see some clashing, there are very different views on financial innovation and what should happen but I think right now there is no upside to approving an ETF.”
She went on to say that there are fundamental concerns with respect to market stability and market oversight. Demirors added that there isn’t a person in these agencies who wants to go in front of Congress and explain the reason the US consumers lost money to Bitcoin.
Joseph Young, an analyst and investor said on Twitter:
“Will a Bitcoin ETF be approved in 2019? probably not. But, every ETF rejection could increase the probability of approval as SEC will give more data. Rejected: Winklevoss; Exchange-based Proshares: Futures-based; Pending: VanEck: OTC-based Bitwise: All”
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Bitcoin will likely be valued at $100,000 with a market cap of over $2 trillion before the end of 2021
The entire cryptocurrency market seems to be on the brighter side of the market since the beginning of the year. A majority of the coins have recorded significant recoveries from their 2018 slump, a period during which most coins lost over 90 percent of their value, when compared to their all-time highs. Among all the coins in the market, Bitcoin [BTC] aka the digital gold, was noted to be making a massive comeback as the coin breached the $11,000 mark after nearly 15 months. The coin however, soon retracted to settle below the $11,000 level.
According to CoinMarketCap, at press time, Bitcoin was trading at $10,887.27 with a market cap of $93.549 billion. The coin recorded a 24-hour trading volume of $20.757 billion for the past 24 hours and saw a massive rise of over 17 percent over the past seven days.
Anthony Pompliano, Co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital Assets, predicted that the largest digital currency could rise to reach $100,000, before the end of 2021. Pomp added that he was around 70-75 percent confident in this prediction. He stated,
“As I have previously said, making predictions is difficult […] Part of my process as a professional money manager is forming a thesis (price target), identifying a timeline (date), and establishing a confidence level. And then constantly re-evaluating those three aspects of my thought process as I receive new information.”
Pomp however, listed six pointers that have to be understood beforehand. First, this prediction is not an investment advice, and people should do their own research before investing in the digital currency. The second is with respect to Bitcoin’s volatility, with Pomp remarking that since it was a highly volatile market, the coin could witness a significant fall before being valued at $100,000. He stated,
“I anticipate that there will be numerous 20-30% drawdowns from new all-time highs as the asset continues to appreciate in value. These mini-boom/bust cycles should not cause panic, but rather need to be understood as natural market dynamics whenever an asset gains significant value in short periods of time.”
Further, the partner of the investment firm stated that the rise would be driven by several catalysts. This includes institutional adoption, exchange-traded funds and retail product approvals, global instability, governments all across the globe manipulating currencies, markets and economy. He went on to state,
“The market cap of Bitcoin will reach $2+ trillion when Bitcoin is worth $100,000. This is less than 1/3 the market cap of gold and less than 1/40 the global money supply.”
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