Bitcoin breaks ATH – Identifying why BTC’s rally is just getting started!
- BTC could trend higher despite recent correction, per an Options analytics firm.
- But apparent demand trended lower in June compared to April and May.
Bitcoin [BTC] has consolidated above $100K amid heightened profit-taking, but it could rally higher.
According to crypto options analytics firm Amberdata, the uptrend could extend despite the recent correction from $111.9K.
In a weekly market report, Amberdata’s Director of Derivatives, Greg Magadini, wrote,
“To me, the bullish Bitcoin trend remains un-damaged, despite the recent pull-back. Volatility is under-performing, but I could see a slow (and consistent) grind higher in prices.”
Source: Amberdata
The attached chart showed the current implied volatility (IV, white bars) dropped to an average of 30-40% compared to historical realized volatility.
This meant the market didn’t expect massive price swings or rallies in the mid-term, hence the gradual price outlook by Amberdata.
Key BTC catalysts, risks
Bitwise’s Head of Alpha, Jeff Park, echoed the above projection and expected IV to reprice higher from July.
“Bitcoin IV is so mispriced right now because the world has no idea what’s coming in Q3, but obvious to all of us on the front line. It’s going to be incredible.”
Notably, most analysts expect potential Fed rate cuts in Q3, which could juice risk-on sentiment if tariff wars are out of the way.
In addition, Magadini said that the recent successful Circle’s IPO (initial public offering) and overall positive regulatory shift could fuel the momentum.
“The high performing CRCL IPO, the USD trend lower (and continued downside risk) the collaborative regulatory backdrop. All are reasons for continued market participation into a steady bullish market”
However, BTC’s apparent demand has declined in June after an impressive recovery in April and May. If demand for BTC wanes further, it could extend the range-bound price action or even drag the asset lower in the short term.
Source: CryptoQuant
In fact, this bearish scenario could be accelerated if the macro front turns negative.
According to Coinbase, despite this week’s renewed trade talks between the U.S. and China in London, July 9 remains a key date to watch for other tariff deadlines.
“We’re about one month away from the July 9 deadline on paused reciprocal tariffs for most nations (August 12 for China), so a lack of momentum on reaching deals with the European Union and Japan could still interrupt any positive sentiment, in our view.”
That said, the 7-day liquidation heatmap reinforced the range-bound price outlook in the short term. At press time, there were liquidity pockets and magnetic zones on either side of the price action.
Nearly $7 billion shorts will be liquidated if BTC reclaims $110K, with a similar amount at risk if the price dips to $100K.
Source: CoinGlass
