Bitcoin eyes $116K – Bullish stars align after Fed caution
Bitcoin’s structure and sentiment indicators turn green, making near-term upside possibilities obvious.
Key Takeaways
Why is Bitcoin showing bullish momentum now?
The Bull-Bear Structure Index turned positive, Binance Funding Rates are bullish, and on-chain data shows rising capital inflows.
What are the key support and potential targets for BTC?
$107,500 is crucial support, with a near-term upside target of $116,000 if momentum holds.
Crypto markets fell as traders grew cautious ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy meeting.
Bitcoin [BTC] and major altcoins dropped even though U.S. stocks rose; traders are clearly nervous about the Fed’s tone and next moves.
Analysts noted that Bitcoin has dropped after the past two Fed meetings, a pattern last seen in September 2024 before the market rebounded to new highs.
Nic Puckrin, investment analyst and co-founder of The Coin Bureau, told AMBCrypto,
“The big day is here, and the markets have already priced in a 25 basis point rate cut later today. But it’s still worth getting out the popcorn for Jerome Powell’s customary press conference, because it’s the rhetoric and the forward guidance that investors will be waiting for with bated breath.”
He added that while rate cuts may already be expected, traders are on edge about the Fed’s message and its political implications.
“While economists still expect to see two rate cuts this year, opinions are diverging on whether this truly is the best policy move. The debate has certainly become incredibly politically charged, so Chair Powell is walking a precarious tightrope right now.”
Sentiment turns positive
The Bitcoin Bull-Bear Structure Index rose above zero for the first time since the 12th of October, making the case for bullish momentum. The index, which tracks market and on-chain data, shows stronger buying activity.
On the other hand, the Bitcoin Unified Sentiment Index (based on CoinGecko votes and the Fear & Greed Index) also turned positive. This usually means there’s confidence in Bitcoin’s near-term outlook.
Puckrin noted,
“The ongoing uncertainty, which has dominated markets all year, is perhaps the reason we are not seeing more euphoria in the cryptocurrency space. Indeed, Bitcoin is exhibiting a potential double top pattern, a bearish signal, and daily exchange volumes have dropped off a cliff,”
Despite that caution, a move higher is possible with improving structural and sentiment indicators as a sign.
Breakout on the way?
Binance data is also showing similar optimism.
Funding Rates for Bitcoin perpetuals have stayed positive since the 22nd, a trend that often comes before short-term rallies.
Negative funding phases usually mean local bottoms, while a return to positive levels indicates bullish momentum.
Adding to this, the BTC-to-stablecoin reserve ratio on Binance has flashed its third buy signal of the cycle.
The same pattern appeared in January and March 2023, and again in March 2025, each time followed by major rallies to $24,800, $73,000, and $123,500.
Rising capital inflows and shrinking supply are boosting optimism in Bitcoin markets.
What you need to watch
Bitcoin held steady near $113K, consolidating after recent gains.
$107,500 is a crucial support level — if BTC maintains this level over the next 24–48 hours, a move toward $116,000 could follow. This aligns with improving Binance Funding Rates and a bullish stablecoin reserve ratio.
With RSI near neutral and volume profile support building below current prices, Bitcoin’s structure indicates that the market is ready for further upside.
