Bitcoin HODLers refuse to sell $11B in profits – Will their patience be rewarded?

• Realized profits reached 104k BTC—far below the 350k BTC threshold that signals market tops.
• BTC may consolidate near $104k, but current trends favor a reclaim of $110k if sentiment holds.

Just a couple of days ago, Bitcoin [BTC] rallied to reach a new all-time high of $112k.

Usually, when the value rises, holders and investors tend to sell and take profits. For instance, when BTC reached $100k for the first time in 2024, profit taking surged, with the amount realized hitting $2.1 billion.

This time, however, the behavior has shifted.

Investors hold tight, even with billions in unrealized gains

Despite the recent price rally, holders and investors are not profit-taking as much as in previous cycles. In fact, both whales and retailers are showing less appetite for profit realization.

According to a CryptoQuant analyst, realized profits stood at 104,000 BTC (~$11B).

Although this looks like a significant amount, the previous cycles have recorded a significantly higher amount. The current levels remain considerably far from the critical threshold of 350,000 BTC.

In fact, BTC has another 246,000 BTC of realized profit headroom before flashing a historical red flag.

Naturally, this gap suggests investors are holding onto their coins instead of selling into strength.

SOPR decline confirms a shift in BTC sentiment

Backing this thesis is the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR).

This metric has declined for five consecutive days despite prices reaching $112k.

Even when the price reached another all-time high, the SOPR dropped, suggesting that holders, although in profit, are refusing to sell.

The drop in profit-taking is observed among whales and retail traders in equal measures.

As per CryptoQuant data, whales are still HODLing with their activity remaining within the neutral zone.

During the previous rally, whale inflows to exchanges exceeded $1 billion. Today? Just $300 million.

This is a significant low level since BTC is experiencing favorable conditions and has entered the discovery phase. Thus, large holders are holding their positions, waiting for more upside before ramping up their selling.

Spent volume and exchange flows reinforce the picture

While a price surge means higher profit-taking activity, things have changed significantly.

Investors are behaving differently this cycle by not selling to take profits, indicating increased confidence. As a result, the total Volume Spent by Age has decreased by $1.1 billion during this price rally compared to the last cycle.

At the same time, Exchange Netflow remains largely negative.

Investors are withdrawing more BTC than they’re depositing, a signal that accumulation is outweighing distribution.

What comes next for Bitcoin?

Simply put, participants across the markets remain bullish and anticipate prices to rise even further. Therefore, the prevailing market conditions position BTC for more gains.

A continuation of these sentiments will see BTC reclaim $100k again.

However, if the tariff talk continues, which has seen BTC drop to a low of $106k, we could see another consolidation with a low of $104k.