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Bitcoin holders should brace for a rally if THESE conditions change

2min Read

The change in supply held by long-term holders was minimal in recent weeks. This lack of LTH growth was a sign of pessimism across the market.

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  • Bitcoin has reached a fork in the road- recovery, or an extended accumulation phase.
  • The long-term holders were slow in buying BTC despite the recent drops, a reticence that could spell trouble.

Bitcoin [BTC] continued to cling to the $61k support. News of BTC miners moving to Kaspa [KAS] might trigger more fear in the market, a recent AMBCrypto report revealed.

An analyst claimed that miners selling their assets to upgrade their hardware after the halving or for cash needs might not impact the market as heavily as anticipated.

So, are BTC holders ready for prices to rally? Or will the selling pressure continue from elsewhere?

Lack of demand combined with long-term holder behavior caused worries

The ETF flows have been primarily negative in two weeks, with only the previous two days bringing some relief from the selling pressure.

This hinted at bearish sentiment for BTC from investors, but it is not yet clear whether that sentiment has begun to swing the other way or if this is a temporary respite before another wave of selling.

Crypto analyst Axel Adler observed on X (formerly Twitter) that the long-term holders’ supply change was minimal in recent weeks. This lack of LTH growth was a sign of pessimism across the market.

Supply in profit turns back from overheated zone

The analyst also pointed out that the supply in profit was at an inflection point. The threshold of optimism/pessimism had been reached.

In the past four years, whenever the supply in profit line crossed below this point, the market would likely go toward an extended accumulation phase.

This would be accompanied by a price drop and could dampen the bullish expectations that the market has for BTC after the halving in May.

Bitcoin Spent Output Age Bands

Source: CryptoQuant

The spent output age bands showed that late May and mid-June saw large coin movements from the 7-10-year holders and 3-5-year holders respectively.


Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2024-25


This suggested that long-term holders were likely selling and was a sign of a lack of conviction.

It does not guarantee further price downturns but it is a sign that the selling pressure has not receded yet.

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Akashnath S is a Senior Journalist and Technical Analysis expert at AMBCrypto. He specializes in dissecting price action, identifying key market trends through advanced chart patterns, and forecasting both short-term and long-term asset trajectories. His distinct analytical method is grounded in his academic training as a Chemical Engineer. This background provides him with a systematic, process-oriented approach to market data, enabling him to analyze the complex dynamics of financial markets with precision and objectivity. Having actively covered the cryptocurrency space since the landmark 2017 market cycle, Akashnath possesses years of experience navigating both bull and bear markets. This seasoned perspective is critical to his insightful reporting on market volatility and evolution. As an active market participant, Akashnath enhances his analysis with crucial, hands-on experience. This practical application of his technical skills ensures his insights are not merely theoretical, but are also relevant and actionable for an audience looking to understand and navigate trading opportunities. He is dedicated to educating readers on the nuances of technical analysis, empowering them with the knowledge to make more informed financial decisions.
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