Bitcoin holds $70K: Why ‘phantom leverage’ raises risk of a BTC reversal

The Bitcoin [BTC] derivatives market was regaining some excitement following the latest rally to $72k. The BTC bounce came after President Donald Trump’s ceasefire announcement, although recent developments seem to be threatening negotiations for lasting peace.

This has spooked the market, and Bitcoin has been treading water around the $70k mark over the past 12 hours. Analysts were quick to point out that the rally was only a short-term move, and smart money was beginning to position itself for a bearish reversal.

A crypto analyst observed that the derivatives taker Buy/Sell Ratio showed extreme aggression from buyers. The 7-day Moving Average of the metric was at 1.04 at the time of writing. The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio itself reached a peak of 1.13 on the 7th of April. The data is sourced from CryptoQuant and covers all exchanges.

Though buyers were aggressive in the derivatives market, the analyst warned of “phantom leverage”. The USDT Refresh Rate Z-Score (30DMA) monitors the capital backing in the market.

The metric registered a reading of -1.58, meaning that the market was pushing the price higher using unrealized profit as margin. The necessary injection of new USDT to sustain the move was not seen.

This made the situation unfavorable for long positions. The current rally is fragile, and a wave of profit-taking could quickly wipe out recent gains.

BTC derivatives traders’ appetite for risk is increasing, but this is dangerous

Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr observed that the Bitcoin Futures Advanced Sentiment Index showed growth in the Bitcoin Futures sentiment over the past three days. The metric combines price, taker flow, open interest, and volume delta to compute sentiment.

The index was at 53.2% and showed a full recovery toward risk-taking appetite from futures traders. These elevated sentiments need to be backed up by sustained demand to keep the price and OI up.

Yet, the threat of a bull trap remains prevalent. A recent AMBCrypto report noted that the BTC whales were more inclined toward short positions than longs. Historically, April has been a high-volatility month for crypto.

Considering both factors, traders should remain cautious about going long in these conditions.

Final Summary

• The Bitcoin futures trader sentiment was positive following the recent rally to $72k.
• The USDT Refresh Rate metric showed a lack of fresh capital entering the market, endangering the quick gains Bitcoin has made since Monday.