Bitcoin – How the Israel-Iran ceasefire affects BTC’s short-term outlook

• BTC recovered 8% to $106,000, following a likely ceasefire between Israel and Iran. 
• Trump expected the two countries to enter a ceasefire as soon as possible. 

Bitcoin [BTC] briefly retested $106K on the 23rd of June after the Israel-Iran ceasefire deal. The upswing extended its recovery to 8% from a weekend low of $98k. 

Despite that, market prices fluctuated yesterday in response to new developments in the Middle East.

A macro bottom for BTC?

Earlier on Monday, BTC dipped sharply to $99K following Iran’s retaliatory attack against a U.S. military base in Qatar. 

Meanwhile, Qatar warned of ‘the right to respond,’ triggering fear of potential contagion across the region, temporarily dragging BTC below $100K again.

Following the announcement of a ceasefire involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran, market tensions eased, propelling Bitcoin above $100,000.

President Donald Trump stated—via a Truth Social post relayed by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent—that the ceasefire would help prevent the 12-day conflict from escalating into a broader regional war.

Israel acknowledged the ceasefire but warned that it would respond with force if it were violated. Part of the statement read, 

“In light of having achieved the objectives of the operation, and in full coordination with President Trump, Israel agrees to the President’s proposal for a bilateral ceasefire. Israel will respond forcefully to any violation of the ceasefire.”

A similar but tacit statement was made by Seyed Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s Foreign Minister.

That said, the market was looking forward to such an outcome, according to crypto trading desk QCP Capital. In a market update, the firm stated, 

“Markets seem to be discounting the chance of major escalation. The U.S. is pressuring China to contain Tehran, which may be calming sentiment.”

The firm added,

“While the put skew remains high, the bounce in spot and drop in front-end volatility show investors are not pricing in broader contagion.”

At press time, Velo data showed that the BTC 25 Delta Skew recovered 4% for the 1-week tenor, indicating a premium for short-dated calls (bullish bets). This reinforced market optimism.  

On key price levels to watch, the 30-day liquidation heatmap marked out $111k and $108k as key resistance levels with high liquidity pools.

On the downside, $101k and $103k could act as short-term support in case of wild price swings.