Bitcoin loses $80K before Fed decision: Assessing whether BTC whale can withstand more selling

Over the weekend, Bitcoin [BTC] prices dipped below the psychological $80k round-number support twice, hitting $79.2k and $79.3k. In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has seen $34.63 million in liquidations.

78% of these liquidations were long, showing the one-sided battle bulls have been fighting in recent days. The trend of lower highs and lower lows over the past three weeks could continue.

Sustained losses could push prices toward the $75k-$77k support zone. The upcoming week could see heightened volatility.

On Wednesday, the 28th of October, the Federal Reserve will announce its decision on a rate hike. The FedWatch tool showed only a 9.4% probability of another rate hike, with a 90.6% probability that the target rate range remains the same: 375-400 bps.

Large spot order sizes mirror the local Bitcoin bottom of July and August

When Bitcoin was trading around $60k, the spot average order size metric lit up green to show a high number of whale spot orders. This coincided with a local market bottom and a powerful price resurgence in mid-August.

The same signal was firing again. However, it need not guarantee a recovery. The spot average order size metric showed high whale participation earlier in the year, when the bear trends were at their most oppressive.

Bitcoin whales and retail behavior run in opposite directions

Crypto analyst Darkfost showed interesting whale behavior that signaled disinterest in distribution at these price levels. Since September, the 30-day average of retail investor inflows to Binance has been rising.

Meanwhile, the 30-day average for whale investor inflows was falling, from $5.9 billion in late August to $3.8 billion.

Whales were in no rush to sell their holdings, the analyst concluded, making this behavior divergence worth watching. If retail selling gets exhausted, or a bullish sentiment shift is catalysed, the previous bullish trend could resume from the $75k support zone.

Final Summary

• Spot average order size has favored big Bitcoin whale orders in recent weeks, mirroring the July-August local market bottom conditions.
• Retail and whale investor inflows to exchanges were moving in opposing directions.