After falling to $62.2K on Monday, 13th July, Bitcoin [BTC] gained by 4.45% a day later as the price poked its head above the $65K-level. In the 48 hours since then, Bitcoin has fallen by 1.37% again. The liquidations caused by the rejection of $65K were not much.
Compared to the liquidation cascade caused by the slide from $74K to $60K, the liquidation figures in recent days were modest. The past 24 hours only saw $52 million in BTC trader liquidations, compared to nearly $980 million in liquidations on 23rd June, when BTC fell from $64.2K to $62K.
AMBCrypto reported that fragile market conditions could stall a recovery. According to a Bitfinex analyst, there was no Bitcoin-specific demand in sight, ETF flows were negative, and so was the Coinbase Premium Index.
Bitcoin bounce is not over yet!
The Bitcoin Regime Score combines taker flow, funding rates, Open Interest, exchange flows, ETF flows, and price trends. Using this metric, crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. demonstrated that the press time reading of +34.6 put the regime score in modestly bullish territory.
The pullback below zero on 14th July has been reversed since, due to the buying pressure that followed.
Main market components have been pointing in the bullish direction in the short-term, the analyst concluded. In fact, the regime remained bullish for the second consecutive week.
Bitcoin price prediction and the case for an imminent bearish reaction
At the time of writing, the price action was at a precarious location. The higher timeframe price trend was bearish. Using the higher timeframe impulse price move from $82,850 to $51,888, Fibonacci retracement levels (orange) were plotted.
Another set of retracement levels was plotted using the 4-hour timeframe’s swing structure. The $65,260-level was the 78.6% retracement level, a key resistance. In recent hours of trading, a bearish reaction ensued too.
It is expected that Bitcoin will continue its downtrend and fall to $55,560 and $51,934 in the coming weeks. This bearish idea would be invalidated upon an H4 session close above $67,292.
In the second scenario, a rally up to $77,489 might materialize before the higher timeframe downtrend takes control.
Final Summary
- The Bitcoin Regime Score metric showed short-term bullish market components for Bitcoin.
- Price action showed there was a good chance of rejection from $65.3K and a bearish trend continuation.