Bitcoin reclaims $65K on US-Iran optimism – Rally sustainable?

This week has further reinforced just how dominant macro flows have become in driving the crypto market.

Despite the strong early Q2 rally that pushed Bitcoin back above the $80k level, the mid-Q2 rotation effectively erased those gains and pulled BTC back toward Q1 price ranges.

As a result, total quarterly ROI briefly slipped back into negative territory. Naturally, it went on to show a clear shift in market structure from risk-on optimism to a more defensive, risk-off environment. 

However, this move was not random or purely technical in nature.

Capital flows across global markets have been actively rotating into safer or more resilient assets. A clear example of this dynamic can be seen in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY).

As the Middle East crisis intensified, the DXY moved back toward the 100 level, as rising oil prices fed into inflation expectations. 

In this context, the recent post by U.S. President Donald Trump naturally carries serious weight. 

As highlighted in the post above, President Trump confirmed that the U.S. and Iran will be signing a peace deal on the 19th of June, alongside the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The market reaction around Bitcoin clearly reflected a shift in sentiment, with Bitcoin [BTC] reclaiming $65k and printing a 2% upside move. 

Notably, the timing of this move couldn’t have come at a better moment.

BOJ decision looms as Bitcoin tests macro-driven breakout 

Bitcoin is increasingly driven by macro flows rather than crypto-native catalysts.

In this context, the upcoming BOJ meeting, with markets pricing in a 1.00% rate hike, couldn’t have landed at a better moment. Historically, BOJ tightening cycles have often coincided with sharp Bitcoin corrections, as a weaker yen and ultra-loose liquidity conditions tend to fuel carry trades and risk exposure into U.S. assets. 

However, this cycle could mark a divergence thanks to the shift into risk-off sentiment following President Trump’s post.

The impact becomes even more pronounced when we look at BTC’s on-chain metrics.

As the chart shows, Bitcoin has just recorded the second-largest unrealized loss in history, while realized losses remain limited, meaning most holders are still sitting on paper losses rather than selling.

This adds another layer of conviction to the current divergence. 

In short, the ongoing risk-on move, combined with strong holding behavior, suggests Bitcoin can absorb volatility heading into the upcoming BOJ and FOMC meetings, especially with BTC holding around the $65k level.

Ultimately, macro forces, not panic selling, are now setting the direction for price discovery.

Final Summary

• Bitcoin moves are now mainly driven by macro events like BOJ, FOMC, and dollar strength.
• Strong holder behavior suggests limited selling pressure despite volatility.