Bitcoin rises as ETF inflows hit February highs amid crisis – But will it last?

Spot Bitcoin ETF investors increased exposure to the crypto asset as the West Asia crisis dragged on. In March, the products attracted a whopping $1.3 billion in net monthly inflows. 

And the appetite didn’t falter in April, even as President Donald Trump threatened “civilization destruction” against Iran. In fact, during Trump’s threat on the 6th of April, the products attracted $471.3 million in daily net inflows, the highest since February. 

Interestingly, over the past month, BTC rallied about 8% while gold lagged by 5.4%. In other words, BTC became a safe haven during the crisis. And investors remain bullish on it, perhaps expecting more returns if the crisis deepens. 

So what’s next after the U.S-Iran ceasefire and potential ending of the war? 

Will short squeeze lift BTC higher?

On Wednesday, the 8th of April, during the early Asian market hours, bears suffered massive losses after the U.S-Iran ceasefire. CoinGlass data showed $424 million worth of shorts were wiped out in the past 24 hours, with Bitcoin [BTC] bears suffering a $164 million loss. 

The short squeeze swiftly lifted BTC from $67.7K to $72K.

Interestingly, Bitwise’s EU head of research, André Dragosch, had previously projected that the massive short covering could be a ‘dry powder’ for a leg higher. 

He cited the record bearish BTC positioning by institutions on the CME, which was the highest since 2023. 

What’s next for BTC after Iran ceasefire?

But in the short-term, if the West Asia crisis is resolved, then the market focus would shift back to macro factors.

The U.S. PCE inflation data, scheduled for the 9th of April, could drive volatility in Bitcoin. This metric is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge and often shapes rate expectations.

Markets have already priced in the possibility of a hawkish pause ahead of the April FOMC meeting.

Meanwhile, Wednesday’s rally triggered $257 million in profit-taking, continuing a pattern seen in recent weeks.

However, Bitfinex analysts termed it ‘modest’ to dent BTC, stressing that the inflation could set the next direction for the crypto asset. 

Traders are taking profit, but the response is modest relative to the move, pointing to limited conviction rather than genuine distribution. PCE on 9 April is the next test.

Final Summary

• U.S. Spot BTC ETFs have seen a massive $1.3B inflows in March as the crypto asset remained resilient during the West Asian crisis. 
• Bitfinex analysts cautioned that the recent BTC recovery will be tested ahead of the U.S. inflation print on Thursday.