Bitcoin: Short-term rally, long-term risk? BTC faces double-top warning
Will Bitcoin’s rally burn out by September, or is this just the eye of a bigger storm?
Key Takeaways
Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio signals a double-top formation. Investors may see a short-lived rally before a potential September correction, making caution the wiser bet.
Bitcoin [BTC] has remained in a relatively bullish phase after exceeding $123,000. However, it has stagnated over the past week, showing only modest gains.
That may soon change. AMBCrypto’s analysis suggests Bitcoin could be preparing for a fresh rally, one that may conclude between late August and early September.
Bitcoin rally could end in September
According to the MVRV 365-Day Moving Average, Bitcoin may soon face a significant decline.
This projection is based on the Double-Top Camel pattern, which led to the 2021 bear market. The pattern forms when two peaks occur roughly six months apart.
As of press time, Bitcoin has formed the first peak and is on track to form the second—projected around the 10th of September—which could trigger a market cascade.
CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei Dent echoed this sentiment, warning that broader market conditions call for caution.
“This timing aligns well with broader market narratives, such as expectations for a possible Fed rate cut and shifts in macro sentiment.”
He also warned that the decline could begin sooner, citing the lagging MVRV 365DMA as a key indicator that late August could mark the start of a downtrend.
Accumulation remains steady despite risk
Despite the looming pattern, investors haven’t stopped accumulating.
The Realized Price–UTXO Age Band chart shows that in the past month, BTC buyers in the 1W–1M cohort increased holdings by 3.6%, while 1D–1W holders grew by 1.4%.
These cohorts have accumulated BTC between $115,252 and $117,762, just under the current price of $118,786.
This behavior implies confidence in a short-term rally, as long-term holders refrain from panic-selling.
Supporting this outlook, Bitcoin’s Exchange Reserve declined in the past day, falling to 2.3 million BTC.
A drop in exchange-held Bitcoin often signals that investors are moving assets into private wallets for long-term holding, with little intent to sell in the near term.
Institutional investors, however, appear to be taking the opposite route.
Institutional exposure drops
Over the past four trading days, institutional investors have been cutting their exposure to Bitcoin, according to CoinGlass spot BTC ETF flow data.
Between the 21st and 23rd of July, this group offloaded $285.2 million worth of BTC, suggesting a shift in sentiment.
However, between the 24th and 25th of July, they purchased $375.5 million in BTC, adding to the bullish case, although temporarily, it appears.
Still, that two-day purchase was the lowest recorded in recent months, indicating waning interest and a possible readiness for a market reversal.
Bitcoin could still see more upside in the coming days.
However, the broader data—especially from the MVRV pattern and institutional flow—points to a looming risk of major decline, suggesting investors should proceed with caution.
