Bitcoin struggles near $80K as demand fades – Warning for BTC bulls?
The market was not betting on continued bullish momentum for Bitcoin, although a short squeeze toward $82k remained viable.
Bitcoin [BTC] rallied to $79.2k late on the 2nd of May, but at press time BTC was rejected from a key local resistance zone. Notably, Glassnode reported that defensive positioning was rising as the price approached the $80k psychological resistance.
In a post on X, the crypto intelligence platform highlighted that takers were selling calls and buying downside protection. The post also used the BTC options data to highlight how the $82k level could set up a short squeeze.
Implied volatility trended lower across April, while upside was being sold, not chased. Another short squeeze could be just around the corner.
Bitcoin recovery lacks steady demand
Using the 30-day sum of the Bitcoin Apparent Demand metric, crypto analyst Darkfost observed that it was too early to conclude that Bitcoin had shifted into a bullish regime.
The metric is calculated as the difference between new BTC issuance and the amount of coin supply that has been dormant for over a year. It tracks the structural accumulation or distribution trends over the higher timeframes.
The chart showed the 30-day sum was still at -44,700 BTC. Though it was an improvement from -89,000 in early April, the negative figures meant apparent demand was still weak.
For most of 2026, this metric has been negative, showing indecisive demand trends.
Since mid-February, the 7-day Moving Average of the Bitcoin netflows to exchanges has been negative, apart from a brief spike in late March. Over the past week, the 7DMA of the metric climbed into positive territory with more certainty.
Exchange inflows generally indicate increased selling pressure, aligning well with the idea that holders were turning more defensive as BTC pushed toward $80k.
The long-term BTC bet
Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of Alphractal, outlined decisive price markers in a post on X.
He advised betting against BTC at its current retest of the short-term holder realized price, while looking to buy at the retest of the long-term holder realized price. It really might be as simple as selling Bitcoin now and buying in the $50k-$55k region.
Final Summary
- The options data showed defensive positioning. Upside was being sold, not chased.
- The long-term on-chain price dynamics showed that BTC could fall toward $50k later this year, which would be interesting to long-term holders.
