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Bitcoin to $115K next? Here’s why it’s not wishful thinking!

3min Read

Bear trap brewing? BTC liquidity zone draws fire at $115k.

Bitcoin to $115K next? Here’s why it’s not wishful thinking!
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  • Bitcoin reclaimed $109k, its highest wick in 20 days, triggering renewed FOMO.
  • Is BTC setting up for another sharp rejection, or a breakout-fueled short squeeze?

Bitcoin’s [BTC] 2.93% surge on the 2nd of July may seem modest, but it closed the day at $109,792 — its highest wick in the past 20 days. Consequently, the move triggered a classic bullish signal: FOMO.

On-chain data shows that 25,812 new addresses appeared in a single day, interacting with the network for the first time. That’s an 8.17% day-over-day jump, marking a fresh monthly high.

This momentum could be a key catalyst.

As BTC approaches a major supply overhang, opportunistic shorts are beginning to circle.

If conviction holds, it could pave the way for an even deeper bear trap — one that could launch BTC straight into the $115k liquidation zone.

Bitcoin presses into resistance

Bitcoin’s price action is starting to feel familiar, almost too familiar. After topping out at $111k, BTC is now making its second run at that level in just over a month, eyeing a potential breakout into price discovery.

The first test saw BTC rejected hard at $110,350, triggering a swift 10.8% drawdown over two weeks. Now, with 67% of Binance accounts skewed short, it appears late-positioned bears are betting on a similar outcome.

Adding to the caution, Open Interest is now approaching $78 billion.

Coincidentally, it is the same elevated level that preceded the last cascade of liquidations when a $10 billion liquidity flush hit the market, intensifying BTC’s 10.8% slide.

Bitcoin OI

Source: CoinGlass

Meanwhile, the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio has dropped 3.71%, a clear sign that aggressive buying is cooling off just as BTC retests historical resistance.

With on-chain signals mirroring the setup from last month, shorts appear to be positioning with precision, tactically loading up for another leg down.

In that case, is Bitcoin’s $109k reclaim shaping up to be a repeat setup for another double-digit drawdown, or the perfect pressure point for a violent upside squeeze?

Can bulls flip the script this time?

Historically, it takes a combination of FOMO-driven inflows and long-term conviction to crack major resistance in Bitcoin’s price action. In fact, that mix might just be forming again.

On-chain activity shows an 8% spike in new address creation, alongside $407 million in BTC ETF inflows and a rising share of supply held by STHs, pointing to fresh capital and renewed optimism entering the market.

But beneath the surface, the foundation looks even stronger. 

According to Glassnode, Long-term holders (investors who’ve held BTC for over 155 days) now own a record 14.7 million coins. What’s striking is that most of the Bitcoin bought during the $100k breakout hasn’t moved. 

BTC

Source: Glassnode

Put together, this lack of distribution at local highs is compressing available supply into stronger hands, while retail-driven capital is beginning to rotate back in. The setup points to a classic liquidity squeeze.

That $115K level? It’s sitting on top of nearly $6 billion in short exposure. If current dynamics hold, bulls could use this liquidity cluster as fuel for the next breakout leg.

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Ritika Gupta is a Financial Journalist and Geopolitical Analyst at AMBCrypto, specializing in the critical intersection of world politics, economic policy, and the cryptocurrency markets. Her analysis is informed by her distinguished background, which includes professional experience at major news network. She holds a Bachelor's degree in Political Science and Psychology from Gargi College, University of Delhi. This academic training provides her with a sophisticated framework for dissecting complex issues such as international regulations, government fiscal policies, and the geopolitical forces that directly influence asset valuations. At AMBCrypto, Ritika applies this expert lens to synthesize macroeconomic data and political developments, offering readers a deeper context for market movements. She excels at explaining not just what is happening in the market, but why it is happening. Her work is dedicated to providing strategic insights that empower readers to understand the complex relationship between global events and their digital assets.
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