Bitcoin to $115K next? Here’s why it’s not wishful thinking!

• Bitcoin reclaimed $109k, its highest wick in 20 days, triggering renewed FOMO.
• Is BTC setting up for another sharp rejection, or a breakout-fueled short squeeze?

Bitcoin’s [BTC] 2.93% surge on the 2nd of July may seem modest, but it closed the day at $109,792 — its highest wick in the past 20 days. Consequently, the move triggered a classic bullish signal: FOMO.

On-chain data shows that 25,812 new addresses appeared in a single day, interacting with the network for the first time. That’s an 8.17% day-over-day jump, marking a fresh monthly high.

This momentum could be a key catalyst.

As BTC approaches a major supply overhang, opportunistic shorts are beginning to circle.

If conviction holds, it could pave the way for an even deeper bear trap — one that could launch BTC straight into the $115k liquidation zone.

Bitcoin presses into resistance

Bitcoin’s price action is starting to feel familiar, almost too familiar. After topping out at $111k, BTC is now making its second run at that level in just over a month, eyeing a potential breakout into price discovery.

The first test saw BTC rejected hard at $110,350, triggering a swift 10.8% drawdown over two weeks. Now, with 67% of Binance accounts skewed short, it appears late-positioned bears are betting on a similar outcome.

Adding to the caution, Open Interest is now approaching $78 billion.

Coincidentally, it is the same elevated level that preceded the last cascade of liquidations when a $10 billion liquidity flush hit the market, intensifying BTC’s 10.8% slide.

Meanwhile, the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio has dropped 3.71%, a clear sign that aggressive buying is cooling off just as BTC retests historical resistance.

With on-chain signals mirroring the setup from last month, shorts appear to be positioning with precision, tactically loading up for another leg down.

In that case, is Bitcoin’s $109k reclaim shaping up to be a repeat setup for another double-digit drawdown, or the perfect pressure point for a violent upside squeeze?

Can bulls flip the script this time?

Historically, it takes a combination of FOMO-driven inflows and long-term conviction to crack major resistance in Bitcoin’s price action. In fact, that mix might just be forming again.

On-chain activity shows an 8% spike in new address creation, alongside $407 million in BTC ETF inflows and a rising share of supply held by STHs, pointing to fresh capital and renewed optimism entering the market.

But beneath the surface, the foundation looks even stronger. 

According to Glassnode, Long-term holders (investors who’ve held BTC for over 155 days) now own a record 14.7 million coins. What’s striking is that most of the Bitcoin bought during the $100k breakout hasn’t moved. 

Put together, this lack of distribution at local highs is compressing available supply into stronger hands, while retail-driven capital is beginning to rotate back in. The setup points to a classic liquidity squeeze.

That $115K level? It’s sitting on top of nearly $6 billion in short exposure. If current dynamics hold, bulls could use this liquidity cluster as fuel for the next breakout leg.