Bitcoin traders bet on upside, but hedging could indicate uncertainty – Explained

• Bitcoin’s Options market has been leaning bullish, with high call Open Interest
• CME Futures data suggested traders may be preparing for high volatility

Bitcoin’s [BTC] Options market has exhibited a moderately bullish sentiment lately, as reflected by the call-to-put Open Interest ratio. The Call Open Interest stood at 11,873.52 contracts at press time, surpassing Put Open Interest at 8,594.58 contracts, resulting in a put/call ratio of 0.72. This means that more traders have been betting on BTC’s price hike shortly.

However, a significant volume of put contracts remains, particularly concentrated in the $75,000–$85,000 range. This could hint at substantial hedging activity, which could point to market uncertainty and a potential rise in volatility. 

A high volume of put options at lower strike prices indicates that traders are safeguarding against potential downside risk. This also usually alludes to caution among investors despite, the bullish bias in calls.

Bitcoin Open Interest and expirations – What the data says

Examining CME Bitcoin Futures Open Interest, we can see a steady build-up over the last several months, with a peak aligning with BTC’s all-time high. However, as the price corrected from $105,000 to $80,000, Open Interest levels adjusted, reflecting a fall in speculative activity. 

Source: CryptoQuant

Many contracts are set to expire within one to three months, highlighting an imminent period of market readjustment. Historically, such expirations can trigger volatility, especially if traders roll over positions or unwind existing contracts.

Bitcoin’s price trend – A crucial factor

Bitcoin was trading at $84,210 at press time, following gains of 0.27% on the charts.

However, it remains well below key resistance levels, notably the 50-day moving average at $88,467 and the 200-day moving average at $96,227. This might mean that despite bullish Options sentiment, the cryptocurrency is still in a corrective phase.

Source: TradingView

Moreover, funding rates across Perpetual Futures markets revealed a mix of positive and negative values – A sign of indecisiveness among traders. Historically, a sustained positive funding rate signals bullish momentum, whereas neutral or negative values indicate cooling demand.

What this means for BTC’s short-term future

Bullish Scenario – If BTC reclaims $88,000-$90,000, Options market activity would hint at further upside, potentially targeting $100,000 in the medium term.

Bearish Scenario – If the price remains below $85,000 and Open Interest continues to fall, BTC could retest support at $78,000-$80,000. This would increase short-term downside risk.

Final thoughts

The Bitcoin Options market seemed to be presenting mixed sentiments at press time, with traders showing a preference for calls while still hedging against possible downturns. The upcoming options expirations and Open Interest adjustments could introduce high volatility, making the $80,000-$90,000 range a critical zone for the cryptocurrency.

Traders should closely monitor funding rates, liquidity inflows, and key moving averages to gauge BTC’s next major move.