Bitcoin: Why BTC’s road to $100K may rely on leverage, not demand

Leverage is quietly reasserting itself as the main driver of Bitcoin’s [BTC] momentum. The recent breakout triggered an aggressive short squeeze, forcing traders to unwind bearish positions at scale.

According to Glassnode, this was the largest short-liquidation event across the top 500 cryptocurrencies since the 10th of October 2025.

On the chart, liquidation spikes align tightly with Bitcoin’s push to local highs.

Traders wiped out millions in short exposure within a short time window, and forced buybacks chased the price higher, reinforcing upside pressure.

This behavior has been building since late 2025, but the intensity accelerated as Bitcoin held elevated levels instead of retracing.

If current liquidations persist, Bitcoin could extend toward the $100,000-$105,000 zone on momentum alone.

However, if funding cools and open interest resets, the price may consolidate. Past squeezes show sustainability depends on spot demand replacing leverage.

OG supply pullback signals…

OG Bitcoin Holders are no longer distributing at the pace seen earlier in this cycle.

STXO data from coins dormant for over five years shows a clear slowdown in long-term holder spending.

Data from CryptoQuant confirms that OGs were highly active into 2024, using institutional demand and government buying as ideal exit liquidity.

However, that behavior has shifted. Earlier in the cycle, OG spending peaked near 3,800 BTC, then cooled to 3,200 BTC, followed by 2,200 BTC.

In the short term, lighter OG selling reduces overhead supply and supports price stability. On the contrary, in the long term, this behavior signals conviction.

Historically, OG restraint aligns with accumulation phases rather than late-cycle distribution.

Whales hedge as retail commits: Who breaks first?

The chart highlights a clear divergence. Whales first unwind their long exposure and then rotate into shorts, suggesting a deliberate shift.

Meanwhile, price remains elevated even as momentum fades. At the same time, leverage is quietly rebuilding.

Taken together, these factors tilt risk to the downside. Whales react early because they see crowded positioning and late-cycle behavior.

Moreover, OG Bitcoin holders are no longer distributing aggressively. That isolates organic selling pressure and leaves leverage as the main driver.

Retail traders often move in the opposite direction. They chase upside momentum, reacting to price rather than structure. As volatility expands, they tend to add long positions.

Meanwhile, on‑chain data from Alphractal showed whales closing longs and flipping short as Bitcoin neared $69,000. Retail traders did the opposite, piling into leveraged longs.

Shortly after, Bitcoin corrected nearly 20%, dropping from $69,000 to $56,000 before stabilizing.

This setup points to a potential shakeout or cooling phase. If leverage unwinds, the price will likely retrace before any sustainable continuation can occur.

All in all, Bitcoin’s structure is clear as leverage, not spot demand, is driving momentum.

Short liquidations lifted the price, while OG selling slowed and whales turned defensive. This tightens supply but raises fragility.

Therefore, upside remains vulnerable. Sustainable gains require spot demand to replace leverage. Until then, volatility risk stays elevated, and any further extension remains exposed to a corrective reset.

Final Thoughts

• Leverage now drives Bitcoin’s momentum, with short liquidations lifting price while spot demand remains secondary, increasing the risk of volatility-driven pullbacks.
• Smart money is turning cautious, as whales hedge and OG holders slow selling, signaling tighter supply but a fragile rally unless spot buyers step in.