Bitcoin’s 16.64M BTC supply lockup faces $72.1K test – Here’s why

Amid recent months of market volatility, Bitcoin [BTC] Long-Term Holders (LTH) continued accumulating supply. LTH supply rose to its all-time high of 16.64 million BTC, accounting for approximately 83% of the total circulating supply.

That is noteworthy given that as of now, the Bitcoin price remains below previous cycle highs. In other words, the majority of investors appear to be increasing their holdings, rather than selling them.

LTH supply did decline in earlier cycles when Bitcoin’s price rose rapidly and holders were taking profits. However, the current trend tells a different story. Long-term investor-held supply increased through most of 2025 and into 2026 as volatility persisted and more coins went into dormant wallets.

Still, although demand still drives market direction, the expanding long-term holder base continues strengthening Bitcoin’s supply floor and reinforcing broader market resilience.

Supply tightens as new whales remain trapped

While Long-Term Holders continue removing supply from circulation, newer Bitcoin whales are telling a different story.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin traded near $64,200. This left the new whales (<155 days) below their $72,100 average cost basis. This implies that the underwater whales would be forced to sell their coins once the cost basis is breached, creating a supply overhead.

Moreover, according to Binance exchange flow data, the supply is becoming less available as holders move their coins into cold storage. Between the 29th of May and the 6th of July, Binance reported withdrawals for eight consecutive weeks. As a result, withdrawals peaked at over 5,200 BTC on the 15th of June.

Withdrawal of coins from exchanges occurred over this period, and the average daily net withdrawal fell by about -887 BTC.

Yet the broader picture remains unclear. Large-wallet activity has increased, while key support zones continue clustering below price. Binance investors sit near $58,700, miners near $53,700, and long-term whales near $47,400.

Therefore, this turn of events leaves Bitcoin in limbo. With tighter supply under it and stuck new whale supply above it, makes the current $72,100 cost basis for these whales the largest barrier to regaining its recovery.

Final Summary

• Bitcoin long-term holders continue absorbing supply, but the $72.1K new-whale cost basis remains a major hurdle.
• BTC exchange outflows point to tightening supply, while trapped new whales continue capping upside momentum.