Bitcoin’s 2017, 2021 macro signal returns – But this cycle has a catch

Bitcoin refuses to break as historic PMI signals return amid growing market uncertainty.

Written by Ritika Gupta

Reviewed by Renuka Tahelyani

Updated 11:00 EDT August 4, 2026

History has a way of repeating itself, and right now, that’s exactly what the market seems to be pricing in. Of course, there’s no guarantee that past events will play out the same way again.

But in trading, investors often look at historical patterns and previous cycles to guide their decisions. This sometimes creates the illusion of “history repeating itself,” when in reality, it could simply be a market coincidence.

Now, with the latest PMI data, a similar setup appears to be forming. As the chart below shows, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 55.6, above the expected 54. This marked its highest level since June 2022.

A stronger PMI typically points to improving manufacturing activity and a healthier economic backdrop, which could influence risk assets like Bitcoin.

Notably, this is where historical patterns start becoming interesting.

Can PMI repeat Bitcoin’s 2017 and 2021 rallies?

According to one analyst, every time the ISM PMI has sustained levels above 55, the crypto market has entered a major upside phase. The analyst highlighted that the same signal behind the 2017 and 2021 crypto bull runs has resurfaced.

During those cycles, the total crypto market cap broke above $500 billion and $2 trillion, respectively, while Bitcoin rallied 1,336% and 59% in those periods.

That said, this signal alone does not guarantee that Bitcoin is about to repeat the same move, especially with BTC still stuck in a broader bearish phase and down more than 25% in 2026.

However, the timing of the stronger PMI data is notable, arriving as markets are closely watching rate expectations, with the odds of a rate hike at the next FOMC meeting currently sitting at 64%.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s ability to hold strong despite rising on-chain selling pressure adds another layer to the setup, suggesting that the improving macro backdrop from the PMI report could be laying the foundation for a potential shift in market momentum.

Bitcoin’s resilience meets rising selling pressure

Calling Bitcoin’s [BTC] resilience above $60k a potential bull trap is not entirely far-fetched.

From an on-chain perspective, selling pressure is picking up across multiple cohorts.

BlackRock recently moved 1,948.07 BTC, worth around $122.03 million, into Coinbase Prime, while Bitcoin miners sold roughly 1,774 BTC, valued at around $112 million, over the past week. Adding to the bearish narrative, Jim Cramer also warned about selling his Bitcoin holdings over quantum computing concerns.

But the bigger takeaway is the sudden reactivation of dormant cohorts after years of inactivity. As the chart below shows, the long-dormant Bitcoin supply is beginning to move again.

Bitcoin aged 2-7 years has started flowing back into exchanges, with the 3-5 year and 5-7 year cohorts surging by 595% and 1,016%, respectively. This suggests that some LTHs are taking action, adding another layer of uncertainty around Bitcoin’s current price resilience.

Can PMI offset Bitcoin’s selling pressure?

Against this backdrop, the latest PMI report starts to carry more significance.

The logic is straightforward: Key macro data releases this week could shape expectations heading into the September FOMC meeting. As mentioned earlier, rate hike odds have recently climbed above 64%.

In this environment, the stronger PMI print could be the first bullish signal, suggesting that the macro backdrop may be turning more supportive for Bitcoin and other risk assets.

This is why BTC’s resilience despite rising selling pressure may not be just another bull trap. Instead, it could signal that improving macro conditions are helping Bitcoin absorb the pressure.