Bitcoin’s 2019 trading pattern repeats itself: Good news for BTC?

• Bitcoin’s 2019 behavior repeats itself, thanks to its investors. 
• Analysts divided on a post-halving rally in 2024 and the likely price trigger. 

It’s five months after the halving event, and Bitcoin [BTC]‘s historical parabolic rally remains elusive.

However, according to CryptoQuant, the halving rally might still be in play, especially as current short-term BTC investors mirrored 2019 behavior. 

According to the data, BTC rallied 490 days after new investors peaked around the 2019 halving event, and a similar pattern was playing out. 

“Currently, we can observe a small peak in UTXOs under six months, which resembles a similar structure seen in 2019 (red circle).”

Mixed views on post-halving BTC rally

For context, UTXO (unspent transaction output) offers insights about BTC holders and, by extension, their behavior based on age bands. The above data tracked those who held BTC for less than six months (new users). 

However, the UTXO declined after BTC peaked in March, which the data attributed to new investors’ likely exit due to losses.

Nevertheless, per the analysis report, BTC might only see a massive rally if the number of new BTC investors increases. 

“Historically, the influx of capital from new investors has been a critical condition for Bitcoin’s price increases.”

Both 2019 and 2024 were BTC halving years. However, the historical price rally happened in 2020 after the halving event. Will history repeat?

Some, like renowned analyst Peter Brandt, claimed that BTC might not hit a new all-time high after stagnating for too long compared to previous cycles. 

However, Outlier Ventures’ Jasper De Maere cautioned that BTC and digital assets have matured and that the halving event was inconsequential to price in 2024. 

“It’s time for founders and investors trying to time the market to focus on more significant macroeconomic drivers rather than relying on the four-year cycle.”

On his part, James Straten believed that the recent 34% drawdown to $49k was normal in the bull run and that the post-halving rally was still likely. 

That said, BTC network activity contracted further as active addresses hit a record low in 2024 and could further drag the price due to muted interest in the digital asset. 

“Active addresses on the #Bitcoin network hit new lows in 2024, reaching the same level as 3 years ago, when the price of BTC was quoted at around $45,000.”

Whether the expected positive macro front amid a likely Fed rate cut will trigger the post-halving rally remains to be seen.

Meanwhile, BTC was valued at $56.7k at press time and has been below $60k since the beginning of September.