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Bitcoin’s 48 hours are done: BTC’s most important correction move has begun, but to what end?

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48 Hours for Bitcoin are done: Bitcoin's most important correction move has begun, but to what end?
Source: Unsplash

Bitcoin’s recent price surge and its sudden correction were the center of speculation and many conspiracy theories. Some of these theories speculated that institutional buyers set long trades before the pump and that the correction that followed the pump was sparked by WikiLeaks’ Julian Assange, who sold 4,000 BTCs worth approximately $20 million. The above-mentioned theories do not have any credibility to them however, and the only things that do are Bitcoin’s technicals and the past data that is observable and quantifiable.

The previous article about Bitcoin’s price movement addressed how Bitcoin will pump briefly and then go into a correction wave within 48 hours, which it did. This article details the movement of Bitcoin in the coming days and when it will bottom.

The Fractal Truth

The recent surge was a fluke and not the beginning of a bull rally, which is quite contrary to what most of the community thinks. The reason for this contrarian belief is the fractal nature of Bitcoin and the past data of other ‘bubbles’ that have occurred. Bitcoin is not the first bubble and it definitely won’t be the last. A few examples of other markets that have shown similar behavior as Bitcoin include the Gold market during the late 1970s and early 1980s, the Dot-com bubble, Qualcomm stocks, etc.

The charts attached below show the uncanny similarity between Bitcoin’s price movement and other markets.

Gold Vs. Bitcoin

Source: TradingView

Qualcomm Stock Vs. Bitcoin

Source: TradingView

Although the time frames across these markets are varied, they represent the same pattern. Kazonomics aptly explains this in “The Fractal Truth of Markets.” The article states,

“A crash cycle pattern is a fractal pattern found in both humans & nature. In humans this emotional cycle has been observed since the days of tulip mania and all the way up to the internet bubble or dot com era most famously. Price is nothing more than consensus behavior of human emotions over time.”

Bitcoin’s Bottom and the Dot-Com Bubble

The most accurate resemblance to Bitcoin’s cycle can be seen in the Dot-Com bubble. More insights on Bitcoin’s bottom can be extrapolated by looking at the Dot-Com bubble and its crash in 2002.

Source: TradingView

As seen in the chart, the Dot-Com bubble reached its peak in March 2000, after which stocks crashed in a step-by-step procedure from 1 to 10. The fall from 9 to 10 was peculiar since it was a 5-fold fall.

Likewise, Bitcoin has been crashing in the same pattern. Since it hit its peak in December 2017, it has completed 9 steps out of 10, and is yet to reach the 10th step, which will be determining Bitcoin’s bottom. The price of Bitcoin from 9 shows that it has completed 4 folds and that the 5th step is yet to unfold. Assuming that Bitcoin will follow the same pattern that Dot-Com did in 2002, Bitcoin’s next move will pull its prices lower than previously anticipated.

Where is the bottom?

The Dot-Com bubble followed an A-B-C trend before it reached its peak, which can also be observed in Bitcoin. The A point acted as a support to the Dot-Com bubble, propelling it to new heights. Assuming the same with Bitcoin, the A point for Bitcoin is between the $2,000 to $1,800 range. This could be Bitcoin’s bottom, the bottom many prominent people in the community have predicted before.



Tyler Jenks, President of Lucid Investments tweeted an interesting thought about Bitcoin and its new lows,

On the contrary, people like Tom Lee and others have opined that Bitcoin has already bottomed. Only time will tell if Bitcoin has actually bottomed and whether the recent surge in prices was the start of a bull rally.





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Akash is your usual Mechie with an unusual interest in cryptos and day trading, ergo, a full-time journalist at AMBCrypto. Holds XRP due to peer pressure but otherwise found day trading with what little capital that he owns.

XRP

Has XRP decoupled from Bitcoin? Is it due to immense pressure from manipulators?

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Hash XRP decoupled from Bitcoin? Is it due to immense pressure from manipulators?
Source: Unsplash

Opinion: Bitcoin, the first cryptocurrency, has had over ten years to grow. However, other altcoins did not have the liberty, due to which Bitcoin exerts its dominance over almost all altcoins in the ecosystem, be it Ethereum, XRP, or Cardano. The price of altcoins generally tends to rise if Bitcoin’s price surges rapidly. The same can be said about the downtrend as well, which is why altcoins are said to be coupled with Bitcoin.

However, the recent buzz on crypto-twitter is that XRP is on the verge of decoupling from Bitcoin. A Twitter user @XRPMOONSHINE tweeted:

“DO ME A FAVOR OPEN UP A BTC/USD CHART AND AN XRP/USD CHART. THEY HAVE DECOUPLED AND ARE MOVING DIFFERENTLY.”

In a very general sense, the comparison of the price change of XRP and BTC gives a crude understanding of whether the prices have actually decoupled or not. Hence, the daily chart attached below shows the price of BTC and XRP against the US Dollar and extends from August 2018 to April 2019. The price of XRP seems to be following a lag from the price of BTC and do not necessarily mean that it has decoupled.

However, there are timeframes where the price of XRP has moved completely unrelated to that of Bitcoin. For example, the meteoric rise of XRP from September 18 to 22 was far higher than the price pump of BTC over the similar timeframe; but the drop of XRP from November 18 to December 16 was exactly the same as that of BTC’s.

Furthermore, XRPMOONSHINE suggested that XRP price was being manipulated. He tweeted:

“It is being manipulated to keep it from rising. For example look at XRP/BTC pair. Keeping it under the down sloping resistance from .80 in September. Thats what I mean by Suppressed, Although im expecting a fairly large move to the upside before 4/24/19.”

The “idea” of the price of XRP being manipulated is not unpopular within the XRP ecosystem as Peter Brandt, a famed trader, suggested the same in one of his tweets.

Brandt tweeted:



Conclusion

XRP may have started to decouple from Bitcoin, but it surely hasn’t decoupled completely. The notion that XRP is being manipulated to keep its price below certain levels can also not be confirmed without proof.





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