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Bitcoin’s price dump to $45K would simply be a ‘normal market pullback’

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Despite Bitcoin’s extended price pullback above 25%, on-chain metrics suggest that some growth was still possible.

Bitcoin's dump to $52K-45K would simply be a 'normal market pullback'

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  • Per a crypto hedge fund founder, a BTC pullback to $52K or $45K would be normal. 
  • Despite the BTC dump, cycle top indicators signaled more room for growth. 

Bitcoin [BTC] was down 13% on the weekly charts and traded below $55K. This week’s dump erased most of the significant gains made in Q1 after the US spot BTC ETF approval. 

The plunge has worried the market, with some insinuating that the bull run could be over. 

However, crypto hedge fund Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards claimed the dump was ‘normal.’ 

“$52K or $45K would be a normal 30-40% bull market pullback.” 

BTC has lost nearly $20K from its March peak of $73.7K to recent lows of $53.4K. That’s about a 26% decline.

A further drop to the consolidation zone (marked in cyan) in February would translate to a 30% pullback.  

Bitcoin

Source: BTC/USDT, TradingView

In the stock market, a 5-10% drop could be considered a pullback. Anything above that would confirm a downtrend.

However, per Edwards, this might not be the case for BTC. As such, the $50K psychological level could be a key target to watch. 

Is bull run over as Bitcoin plunges towards $50K?

Interestingly, the negative market sentiment was linked to Mt. Gox and German Bitcoin sell-offs, per market observers. 

Some have welcomed the sell-offs as a great way of clearing the pending supply overhang for an even greater tailwind in Q3 2024. 

“Come late Q3/Q4 with seasonality, election, liquidity presumably on crypto’s side, there will no longer be major supply overhangs that have been looming over the market for years.”

But it seems that the Mt. Gox distribution could be delayed. An update on the 5th of July indicated that other creditors could wait longer for repayments. 

The defunct Japanese exchange has 141.6K BTC, worth around $7.6 billion based on current prices, to offload. On the 5th of July, it moved $2.7 billion and forwarded BTC worth $148 million to Bitbank.  

Bitcoin

Source: Arkham Intelligence

Will the market see relief if Mt. Gox delays repayments to other creditors? That remains to be seen.

In the meantime, despite the negative sentiment, BTC still has some room to grow. Historical price chart data indicated that a market top could be likely in late 2025. 

Besides, a collective of key BTC cycle top indicators hadn’t overheated yet to signal that the top was in. 

Bitcoin cycle top signals

Source: checkonchain

Key metrics like MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) and even Puell Multiple, which gauges miners’ profitability, were not at extreme levels. As such, it suggested that BTC had a little more room for upside.

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Benjamin is a Telecommunication Engineering graduate who is passionate about crypto-markets and unraveling market trends. Armed with charts and patterns, he's interested in making the intricate, complex landscape of digital assets more palatable for every user.
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