Bitcoin’s fate hinges on $102K – Breakdown or breakout ahead for the price?
Long-term outlook may be bullish for Bitcoin, but short-term volatility could play a role too.
- Bitcoin has held firm above its monthly open for June
- Fibonacci retracement levels highlighted the importance of the $102k support zone
Bitcoin [BTC] holders have continued to remain steadfast. In fact, a recent report revealed that whales/retail BTC inflows to exchanges slowed down too.
This behavior may be evidence of a preference for holding, rather than selling. While this could be bullish in the long term, the short-term price action might also see a dip.
The monthly levels were marked out in green and formed a short-term range that Bitcoin has continued to cling to. A daily session close below $104.6k would be the first step to show the range was truly breached.
Until then, the build-up of liquidity around $103k-$104k could be tested, but might not be a bearish continuation signal.
As the daily candlewicks of the past week revealed, a move south could be followed by a bounce. The chance of such a bounce has diminished over time. This can be evidenced by the OBV falling below the early June low and testing as resistance over the past 24 hours. The RSI flashed bearish momentum as well.
Importance of $102k-level for Bitcoin
On the 4-hour chart, the rally from $100.3k to $110.5k was used to plot a set of Fibonacci retracement levels (pale purple). The 50% and 61.8% levels have been important over the past week, especially the latter at $104.2k.
The failure of this Fib level would mean that $102.5k will emerge as the next target. Beneath that, the $101.5-$102k range marked the bullish order block where the rally earlier in June began.
The OBV on the H4 chart showed sellers had the upper hand recently. At press time, the price structure and momentum were also bearish.
Finally, the Bitcoin MVRV Deviation Pricing Bands revealed that $102.5k was a support level at the +0.5σ-level.
The price being above this level may be a sign that the market is still in its early bull phase. A move beyond +1.0σ, now at $122k, would signal a local top.
Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion
