Bitcoin’s KEY metric hits 2024 lows as BTC eyes $70K – Caution ahead?

Bitcoin [BTC] rebounded from its $63k slip and touched a high of $69,988, then retraced slightly as the broader crypto market recovered. 

At the time of writing, Bitcoin [BTC] traded at $68409, up 5.12% on the daily charts. With the recent jump, BTC flipped its short‑term Moving Averages (9 and 21 MAs), signaling upside momentum in the near term. 

Yet despite this shift, the broader market structure remains weak.

Bitcoin’s spot volume hit 2024 lows

In his analysis, Darkfost noted that Bitcoin’s Spot Volume fell to 2024 lows, driven by low market liquidity. The analyst warned that February 2026 is on track to close as the month with the lowest BTC trading volume since 2024.

Investors have grown cautious, sharply reducing risk‑taking. At the same time, market liquidity has fallen as both individual and institutional participants remain on the sidelines.

To start, Spot trading volume has declined across all major exchanges. On Binance, volume dropped from $198 billion to $75 billion. 

Gate.io fell from $53 billion to $25 billion, while Bybit slid from $41 billion to $20 billion, each losing more than half.

Additionally, institutional investors have shown less appetite for market entry, further reducing spot volume. In fact, most of these entities have closed positions, reducing exposure as evidenced by Spot ETFs’ inflows. 

Checkonchain data showed that ETFs’ trade volume dropped from $14.07 billion to $4.4 billion, a decline of $9.6 billion. At the same time, Total ETFs Net Inflows fell from $61 billion to $54 billion, a $7 billion decline. 

Such a massive drop indicates a market in a cautious phase, with investors preserving capital and awaiting suitable conditions to deploy.

Often, when spot volume falls, speculators shift to futures, helping the market maintain momentum. However, current market conditions differ, as spot and futures volumes have dropped in tandem.

According to Checkonchain data, Aggregate Futures Volume fell from $123 billion to $65 billion, a $58 billion decline. This decline indicates reduced risk appetite and risk-averse sentiment in the market.

What’s next for BTC?

Bitcoin has shown sustained weakness as investors across the market have taken a step back, awaiting suitable market conditions.

As such, the market remains structurally weak, and bearish sentiment has dominated. In the short term, however, Bitcoin showed recovering bullish sentiment.

For that reason, Stochastic RSI made a bullish crossover and climbed to 75, at press time, reflecting the strengthening upside momentum. At the same time, BTC jumped above its short-term Moving Averages (9- and 21-day MAs), validating the short-term uptrend.

When these two momentum indicators flash bullish, it signals the likelihood of trend continuation in the short term. Thus, if the demand recently observed holds, BTC will flip $70k and target $73,700.

However, if the momentum fades as quickly as it emerged, BTC will breach the $66k support, with $65,157 as the critical support level.

Final Summary

• Bitcoin spot volume dropped to 2024’s low levels, amid reduced market liquidity. 
• BTC rebounded from $63k, hiking to $69,988, signaling short-term bullish momentum.