Bitcoin’s long-term price target – $466K after next halving?

• Bitcoin analysis based on macro indicators shows the asset remains on track for another all-time high.
• Technical analysis of the price trend highlights criteria for a potential upswing.

Bitcoin’s [BTC] has continued to hold above the $100,000 mark despite recent market turbulence.

Bitcoin’s long-term outlook points to a major rally, with the asset potentially reaching four times its current price if historical trends hold. AMBCrypto brings you the full insight into current market movements.

Yearly trend points to a new Bitcoin high

Analysis from CryptoQuant on the Bitcoin’s Yearly Percentage Trend indicates that 2025 could be a bullish year for the asset.

The chart, which starts in 2011, shows Bitcoin entering a recurring 3-year cycle: a rally phase followed by a corrective period—closely aligning with the 4-year halving cycle.

According to the analysis, 2025 marks the third year of the current cycle, and Bitcoin could be set for a 120% gain, potentially reaching $205,097 by the end of this phase.

This indicator works by focusing on long-term price movement and Bitcoin’s overall performance to project market conditions.

However, AMBCrypto’s independent analysis of historical price trends suggests that an even larger move may be in store.

Halving predicts a much higher rally

Bitcoin’s performance following the May 2020 halving has been used to forecast potential market direction for the current cycle.

Notably, since the 2020 halving, Bitcoin has posted a total gain of 750% over four years, with its price reaching $69,000.

If the current trend continues, another 750% rally may unfold. Price projections indicate Bitcoin could climb as high as $466,257.

This analysis—conducted on a 9-timeframe chart—used the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to explore how the rally might play out.

The study revealed that the 2020 post-halving rally didn’t fully begin until Bitcoin’s RSI crossed into the overbought region and trended higher.

This region signals that an asset is overbought and may soon correct. After this phase, prices often stabilize at levels higher than the point where the overbought trend began.

At press time, the asset has yet to cross into this RSI region, as it traded below the 70-mark. A move above this level could trigger a strong rally, pushing the asset well above its current range.

Another key factor in Bitcoin’s long-term performance is liquidity flow in and out of Bitcoin Spot Exchange-traded Funds (ETFs).

As of this writing, these funds hold a combined $131.16 billion in assets under management.

If this number continues to rise, it suggests that traditional investors are increasingly allocating capital to the asset, further supporting its price performance.