Bitcoin’s price ‘fails’ twice, but here’s why a crypto-winter is still unlikely
In the short-term, projections for the market remain dire.
Bitcoin’s [BTC] recovery efforts haven’t been totally successful lately. In the last 8 days, Bitcoin has tested the $94k local resistance twice.
Both times, it failed to break through. As things stand, the higher timeframe trend remains bearish for the world’s largest cryptocurrency, despite the uptick from $84k over the last three weeks.
In a post on X, analyst Darkfost explained that the lack of incoming liquidity might be the biggest issue holding BTC back. Stablecoin inflows to exchanges have fallen by 50% since August. It meant that there has been a lack of steady demand for Bitcoin to drive the prices higher.
Other on-chain metrics showed that short-term holders have been suffering and may be in no position to drive a market recovery.
Short-term BTC holders are still in the real pain zone
A post on CryptoQuant Insights explained how the short-term holder cohort may be experiencing its deepest loss regime of 2025. They have been holding losses, which suggested that each Bitcoin price bounce offered an opportunity to sell.
Underwater holders willing to sell the bounce, combined with the dwindling demand, could be tough obstacles for the bulls.
The 24-hour sum of STH holdings sent to exchanges is another way to keep track of trends. During an uptrend, losses from STH will be minimal. During a downtrend, holdings tend to be at a loss in greater numbers.
Over the past month, the lack of an upward trend shift combined with strong profit-taking activity. The price bounce in mid-October saw fewer BTC sent at a profit to exchanges – A sign that there was confidence of further gains.
Since 27 November, the spikes in STH profit-taking have underlined the statement made earlier. Market sentiment is fearful, and each price bounce is for selling.
There may be an argument that the current market phase is stabilization, and not outrightly bearish. Thus, the developments of this cycle mean that a full-blown winter is unlikely.
Final Thoughts
- The lifeblood of crypto markets, stablecoins saw reduced inflows to exchanges to reflect a fall in demand.
- Metrics revealed that short-term holder behavior has shifted into a “sell-the-bounce” mentality.
