Will Solana Recover? Can SOL Reach $1000 by 2040?

As an emerging contender against established giants like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL) has garnered significant attention for its potential to revolutionize decentralized applications (dApps) and finance. The question on many minds is: “Will Solana recover from its current challenges and attain new heights?” 

This blog delves into the intricate dynamics of Solana’s ecosystem, examining its technological foundations, market trends, and expert predictions. We will explore the feasibility of Solana reaching the ambitious milestone of $1000 by 2040, considering factors such as innovation, competition, and the overall trajectory of the crypto market.

Examining Solana’s recent price drop: Will it recover?

In order to answer whether Solana will recover, it is imperative that we first understand the recent decline in the price of SOL.

A closer look at SOL’s decline

The entire cryptocurrency market has been experiencing a downturn in recent weeks, and Solana is no exception. This downturn aligns with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) approval of 11 spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States.

In 2023, the value of Solana (SOL) saw an impressive increase, surging by over 900%. This growth was particularly notable in December, marked by a strong bullish rally.

The surge in buying activity likely led to an inflated market valuation for SOL. Following this rally, some investors may have decided to capitalize on their gains by selling their SOL holdings. This sell-off by investors has further contributed to a subsequent dip in SOL’s price.

Over the past seven days, SOL’s value decreased by around 12%. Looking at a broader timeframe, Solana experienced an approximately 22% drop over the past month. Meanwhile, SOL has experienced a simultaneous decline of around 35% in trading volume.

For current insights into Solana’s market performance, read our expert analysis on why Solana is dropping today and this week.

Solana technical analysis

SOL’s financial trajectory was noteworthy during its October 2023 rally, which marked a significant recovery phase. This rally, however, encountered a substantial obstacle at the $116 mark, serving as a critical point of rejection. 

The resistance level catalyzed a downturn in SOL’s price, underscoring the impact of market sentiments and trader psychology on crucial price thresholds.

SOL in 2024

As 2024 unfolded, SOL’s price dynamics took a more bearish turn. Its value descended below the established support level of $90. This level was under constant attack from the bears, and the breach signified a shift in market dominance. 

The trading volume of SOL displayed a discernible decline from January 2024. This decrease in volume was indicative of diminishing trader interest or hesitation in the market.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached a peak of 87.28 in mid-December 2023. This high value was a clear indicator of the asset being overbought, suggesting that the market sentiment at that time was overly bullish. 

Such extreme readings often precede a price correction, as was observed in SOL’s case. Following this peak, the RSI experienced a decline, settling at 66.15. Although this level still resided in the bullish zone, it indicated a moderation of the previous overly optimistic market sentiment.

Notably, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has maintained its position in positive territory since March 2023. The indicator stood at 0.17 at the time of writing.

Bears dominate SOL’s daily chart

While the weekly chart indicated bullish dominance, a contrasting scenario unfolded on the daily chart. Here, bearish trends were more prominent, with SOL’s price charting lower highs and lower lows since January 2024.

As of this writing, the RSI on the daily chart had decreased to 45.04, aligning with the bearish sentiment reflected in the price movements. Concurrently, the CMF witnessed an ascent above the zero line on January 22, 2024, registering a value of 0.04.

This recent rise in the CMF could signal a shift in market dynamics, potentially indicating an increase in buying pressure amidst the prevailing bearish trend.

At the close of the period under review, SOL was trading at $87.61. Given the short-term bearish sentiment, SOL might continue its downward trajectory. If that happens, the next stop for the price will likely be around $70. 

However, there is a glimmer of hope, as Solana has recorded around a 1-2% increase consistently for the past two days. A recovery might be on the charts if SOL manages to climb and sustain above $100 and if there’s a shift in market sentiment leading to increased trading volume and buying pressure. 

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Future of SOL by 2040: Can Solana reach $1000?

Despite weathering a storm in the markets, Solana has managed to shine as the fifth largest cryptocurrency, according to CoinMarketCap. Going back to its humble beginnings, SOL debuted with a price of approximately $1.

In less than two years, SOL managed to attain its all-time high (ATH) of $259.90 in November 2021. To date, SOL has appreciated over 10400%.

Solana has also demonstrated remarkable resilience following the collapse of the FTX in November 2022. The cryptocurrency exchange and Alameda Research were key supporters of the Solana project and its surrounding ecosystem.

So, when FTX and Alameda Research entered bankruptcy proceedings and the magnitude of their alleged fraudulent practices came to light, this revelation severely impacted investor trust in Solana.

Between November and December 2022, the price of SOL plummeted from a high of $33 to a low of $8, representing an approximate decline of 75%. However, SOL managed to make a robust recovery from its December 2022 lows.

Currently, the price of SOL is approximately 66% below its ATH.  Therefore, it may prove challenging for the SOL price to reach $1,000 in the short to medium term.

In the long term, there are a variety of factors that could influence Solana’s journey to $1000, both positively and negatively. Here are some key points to consider:

Factors in favor of Solana reaching $1000

Strong fundamentals of Solana

Solana boasts a high transaction speed of an average of 5,000 to 10,000 transactions per second (TPS) with block times as short as 400 milliseconds. The network maintains an average cost per transaction of $0.00025. Moreover, it is secured by 1,809 validator nodes.

At present, the network hosts 11.5 million active accounts with 21.9 million NFTs minted. This makes it attractive for building dApps and non-fungible tokens (NFTs), potentially driving demand for SOL. 

Growing ecosystem

Solana’s dApp and NFT ecosystem is expanding rapidly, attracting more users and developers to the platform. SolanaFloor reported a 27% increase in Solana NFT volume over the past week. In addition, revenue from Solana has seen a significant 140.2% growth in the last 30 days.

Moreover, Artemis data indicated that the Solana network experienced a record-breaking month, with stablecoin transfer volume reaching an unprecedented $316 billion.

According to data from Token Terminal, the number of daily active users on the Solana network has also increased by 162.8% over the past year. 

Solana Program Library-20 (SPL-20) tokens

The recently launched SPL-20 token standard is a key component of the Solana blockchain ecosystem. It establishes a detailed framework for generating and handling digital tokens on the Solana network.

The growing popularity of Solana SPL tokens, including tokens like Jito (JTO), Bonk (BONK), and Dogwifhat (WIF), has significantly contributed to the rising interest in Solana. BONK has also maintained its position as the third largest memecoin. If the popularity of these assets continues to grow, it can positively impact SOL’s price.

Institutional interest

The growing interest from institutions in Solana and the broader cryptocurrency market can likely positively impact SOL’s price. A recent example of this is the introduction of token extensions. This marks a significant development in the Solana token program.

Developed collaboratively with prominent regulated institutions, these extensions employ a standard interface for integration with Solana applications. This facilitates the development of specialized tools and features at the token level.

As a result, these token extensions offer regulation-compliant, adaptable token functionalities that substantially reduce the time and resources required for engineering.

Bitcoin halving

Historically, Bitcoin halvings have been associated with increased interest in cryptocurrencies and a potential bull market. If the upcoming halvings trigger a broader crypto bull run, Solana has the potential to see significant price gains, potentially reaching $1000 or even higher.

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Factors against Solana reaching $1000

Competition

Solana faces stiff competition from other smart contract platforms, such as Ethereum, Cardano (ADA), and Avalanche (AVAX)

. If these competitors gain traction, it could limit Solana’s growth.

Security challenges

Scalability challenges

While Solana boasts high transaction speeds, it has faced occasional congestion issues and network outages. Addressing these scalability challenges will be crucial for its long-term success.

Regulatory uncertainty

The cryptocurrency market remains largely unregulated, and governments worldwide are increasingly scrutinizing digital assets. This regulatory uncertainty could dampen investor sentiment and impact Solana’s price.

Market volatility

The cryptocurrency market is notoriously volatile, and Solana’s price could fluctuate significantly even without any fundamental changes.

Overall, while reaching $1000 is certainly possible for Solana, it is far from guaranteed. It will depend on a complex interplay of various factors, both internal and external to the project.

Consider all angles in your investment decision by reading about all potential bearish scenarios for Solana.

The takeaway

As we’ve journeyed through the complexities and potential of Solana, it’s clear that its growth and recovery hinges on multiple factors. While the prospect of Solana reaching $1000 by 2040 is an intriguing one, it remains a speculative venture balanced between optimistic forecasts and pragmatic realities.

The cryptocurrency landscape is notoriously unpredictable, and Solana’s future, like many of its peers, is an intricate tapestry woven from technology, market dynamics, and the ever-changing tapestry of global finance. If you’re convinced about Solana’s future, start your journey with our step-by-step beginner’s guide on how to buy Solana in 2024.

Disclaimer: This blog represents the author’s personal opinions and should not be taken as financial advice. Please consult a qualified financial advisor and evaluate your individual circumstances and risk tolerance before making investment decisions.