On the 30th of May, Binance Coin [BNB] rallied beyond $700, breaking out of a near four-month range. This bullish breakout did not last long. Much has changed in June.
Bitcoin’s [BTC] descent accelerated, and the dip extended much deeper, going from $73.5k to $59.1k in five days.
This bearish move saw BNB’s bullish breakout wiped out. The range low at $570 was tested as support. A brief bounce up to $610 occurred on Sunday, the 7th of June, but the bearish pressure has already forced BNB back below $600.
The OBV made a new multi-month low to signal heavy, persistent selling. The price bounce was capped at the 200-day moving average, showing that it was likely a liquidity grab before a bearish continuation.
On-chain metrics agree that BNB can see more downside
The exchange net position change tracks the 30-day change in supply held in exchange wallets. A rollover into negative territory implies coins leaving exchange wallets, which typically signals accumulation.
This buying need not translate into a positive price trend, though it does help identify market participant intent. The heavy outflows in February represented an absorption of selling, but the trend in place remained bearish in the higher timeframes.
Like the late March-early April exchange outflows, the negative net position change in recent days might be followed by a bounce, but a trend reversal remains far off.
BNB addresses currently show a profit margin of 37.87%, the lowest since January 2024 but still well above the levels that marked the Q3 2023 market bottom. If past cycle patterns repeat, BNB could face a deeper decline in the coming months.
Should BNB traders sell now?
The price action was bearish on the 4-hour chart. The MACD remained below the zero line and could soon form another bearish crossover, as the price tried and failed to rise past the $610 local resistance.
Swing traders can consider waiting for a breakdown below the $570 range low to go short. Such a move would provide a clearer invalidation and also confirm a breakdown from the range.
Final Summary
- The BNB exchange wallet supply trends signaled accumulation, but it need not result in a bullish trend reversal.
- The 4-month range low at $570 has been defended, but a breakdown below this level could be around the corner.