Bitcoin [BTC]: What one can expect from mid-halving event due next week
Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, has impressed investors with its bullish metrics of March. In one of the most interesting metrics, the outflow of Bitcoin from exchanges in the past 30 days reached the 100K mark.
Here it’s important to note that the monthly outflow of Bitcoin from such a large-scale exchange occurred several times in history, but most of them occurred after 12 March 2020. Importantly, after the major sell-off on 24 February 2022, the price of the king coin appreciated.
Why the sudden bump?
The Bitcoin price has dropped under $50,000, down from highs of almost $70,000 late last year. This drop in price occurred as Russia’s war in Ukraine sent shockwaves through global markets. Nonetheless, the prediction game is off to a solid 2022 start. While 2021 focused on the $100k price prediction. Curiously, 2022 saw a few ‘dramatic’ predictions, so to speak.
For instance, a crypto price prediction forecasted that Bitcoin’s price could hit $1.3 million. Thus, calling the “upside” for gold and Bitcoin “potentially dramatic.” Well, it’s worthy to note that the event of Bitcoin halving plays a vital role in BTC’s price pumps.
Interestingly, the next halving is expected to occur between March and April 2024 or early May. In the previous cycles, a price hike followed the event. One may wonder how.
Well, according to Santiment, the price increase hits its peak between 515 and 545 days following the halving. This was reached in Q4 of 2021 when Bitcoin reached an all-time high of over $60,000. Usually, the price top historically occurs 515 to 545 days after $BTC‘s supply is cut in half. Thereby, creating more scarcity.
After the 2016 halving, the price rose from 11 July to a peak in December 2017. After that, it dropped due to the mid-halving in July 2018. But a rise was imminent. The halving in May 2020 raised the price again to a peak in October 2021. Well, it’s expected that such could be a scenario around the upcoming 11 April too.
On 6 April, the significant resistance happened to be $50,000. The $50k mark continues to be the near-term resistance. Now, if the asset could break above and maintain itself on the upper levels, then the mid-halving event may differ. In this regard, Santiment’s report added,
“The 11/Apr/22 is the Mid-Halving correction of the on going cycle and if the price would make it to stable itself above this level, then we can give more credit to the thesis that says: “this cycle is different than the others.”
But is it, really?
Well, yes. This time around BTC saw more active users across the network. At press time, the network had almost 900,000 daily dynamic addresses, much higher than the 600,000 in 2018. Meanwhile, BTC this time has a massive influx of institutional investors.
In July 2018, the whales or institutions were indecisive, and after a short period, the holders with a balance of 100-1,000 BTC started to sell their Bitcoins while the wealthier ones were the buyers. However, in the current market structure, there seems to be a change in holding behavior as seen above. In fact, 79% of these holders have registered massive gains as per IntotheBlock’s data.
So this time around, it means that the “BTC price trend is going to be mature because the investors are getting mature,” the report concluded.