Can the US Bitcoin reserve bill survive Congress with 6% odds?

The U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve proposal is set to be considered in the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday, the 16th of September. 

In May, the bill was introduced and co-sponsored by over 20 lawmakers. The bill, also known as H.R. 8957 or the American Reserve Modernization Act (ARMA) of 2026, had one major objective: to formalize a strategic BTC reserve. 

According to the main sponsor, U.S. Representative Nick Begich (R-Alaska), the sentiment around global reserve assets and alternatives has changed, and the U.S. needs to change too. 

However, the bill’s introduction was just the first set to potentially becoming a law. The second step is clearing House Committee markup (scheduled for Wednesday). Should it clear the hurdle, a final House approval vote would then help advance the bill to the Senate before being sent to President Donald Trump to sign it into law.   

U.S. BTC reserve progress outlook slips to 6%

However, given the tight House and Senate calendar ahead of November midterms, prediction sites placed a very low chance of the bill’s progress to the finish line, at least in 2026. Throughout September, the passage odds have remained around 5-6%, down from 60% last December. 

The bill proposed that the U.S. should hold BTC for at least 20 years and direct some of the future sales to offset national debt. This was a formal way to create a framework for managing the government’s digital stockpile, especially from criminal investigations and forfeitures. 

As of writing, the U.S. government holds 328K BTC, worth about $25B at current market value. 

However, other countries have been aggressively accumulating BTC with different motivations compared to the U.S. In particular, the UAE reported over $760M BTC exposure in Q2 and views BTC as digital gold. 

Overall, governments own 435K BTC, or 2% of the circulating supply. This is about four times smaller than the stash held by businesses like Strategy. But the bulk of the supply, 66% or 14M BTC, is held by individuals. 

That said, it remains to be seen whether the U.S. will formalize its BTC reserve plans amid a tight Congressional calendar. 

Final Summary

• House Financial Services Committee is set to mark up the U.S. BTC reserve bill on 16th September
• The odds of the bill’s progress and final passage into law before 2027 were below 10%