Can Trump’s crypto project WLF save his falling Polymarket odds?

• Harris now leading Polymarket odds at 50%, with Trump closely trailing at 49%.
• Trump’s WLF project is facing criticism, adding uncertainty to his presidential odds.

With just two months to go until the U.S presidential elections, the latest Polymarket odds show Vice President Kamala Harris holding a narrow lead. According to the same, she has 50% odds of winning the elections, over Donald Trump’s 49%. 

While this isn’t a numerically significant margin, it’s still a critical one. Especially since VP Harris has for long trailed the Former President on Polymarket.

Source: Polymarket

Presidential debate and its impact

For many days, Trump had been leading Polymarket’s odds. However, things took a surprising turn on 10 September when he and Harris faced off in their first presidential debate.

The debate covered various topics, from the economy to immigration. However, notably, cryptocurrencies were largely absent from any discussion. Despite much anticipation, neither candidate delved into the subject, leaving many in the crypto community waiting for clarity on their positions.

Outside of that, there appeared to be a general consensus that Trump’s debate performance fell short of expectations. In fact, data from blockchain-based betting platform Polymarket revealed that 99% of voters favored Harris as the debate winner. 

Source: Polymarket

For those unaware, prior to the debate, Trump led with 53% of the projected votes, while Harris trailed at 45%.

However, immediately after the debate, the race tightened significantly, with both candidates neck-to-neck at 49% each. 

Source: i/o/X

Trump’s push to top the prediction polls

In light of his declining presidential odds, Trump turned to X (formerly Twitter) on 12 September to announce that he would go live on the platform on 16 September. In the video, he revealed plans to launch World Liberty Financial (WLF) – A project led by his sons, Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump. 

He said, 

“We’re embracing the future with crypto and leaving the slow and outdated big banks behind.”

Unfortunately, the response to this plan wasn’t as appreciated as many initially expected. In fact, the reactions were tepid from many in the crypto-community too. 

For example – Colin Talks Crypto took to X and suggested, 

Source: Colin Talks Crypto/X

Trump’s crypto engagement so far

While details remain vague, Trump has previously hinted that World Liberty Financial will be a decentralized finance (DeFi) platform for borrowing and lending. 

This is just the latest step in his pivot towards cryptos over the past year and a half though. His engagement with the crypto community has been notable, including participation in Bitcoin conferences, accepting crypto donations, hosting NFT-themed dinners, and launching Bitcoin-related merchandise.

These activities have contributed to many in the crypto space still backing him as U.S President. Despite his poor debate performance. 

What lies ahead?

There is a strong possibility that Trump could reclaim the top spot on the Polymarket charts once WLF goes live. 

However, despite Trump’s strong crypto engagement, recent criticism of the WLF initiative has raised concerns. Especially about potential conflicts of interest should he win another term.

In fact, even Nic Carter, a partner at Castle Island Ventures and Trump supporter, has labeled the project a “huge mistake.”