Cheaper to mine, harder to profit – The new reality for Bitcoin miners!

In the State of the Union address, President Donald Trump highlighted innovation policy in a bid to ease concerns over restrictive trade actions and reinforce the idea of economic resilience. While Bitcoin [BTC] briefly rallied to $69k, it has since retraced by 6% in under three days.

The long-term bearish pressure on BTC has put miners under increasing stress. Bitcoin’s “electrical cost” has fallen from $71k in Q4 2025 to around $53.5k now. This means it is getting cheaper to mine Bitcoin as the inefficient miners were forced to close operations, making it easier to mine.

AI and data centers are changing the Bitcoin mining scene

In August 2024, VanEck published a report underscoring the rising importance of Bitcoin miners in AI and high-performance computing (HPC) areas. They argued that miners were missing a massive valuation arbitrage opportunity.

They projected an annualized revenue of approximately $9.11 million per MW (megawatt, or 1 million watts delivered continuously, 24 hours a day for a year) for AI/HPC.

Bitcoin miners trade at an average of ~$4.5M per megawatt (MW) of installed capacity, while some data center stocks have been trading at $30 million/MW or more. If these miners can transition 20% of their installed capacity to AI/HPC infrastructure, they could “easily double their market capitalization by 2028.”

According to Miner Weekly, the revenue per megawatt and GPUs are not the only metrics to look at. The bond market is another potent lens to view the AI and data center boom with. Over the past 12 months, $33 billion of long-term senior notes were issued by Bitcoin mining/AI infrastructure companies.

The bond market revealed a “risk ladder” ranging from 4% for established, low-risk incumbent energy giants. At the high-yield end of the spectrum, Bitcoin infrastructure firms like CoreWeave paid a speculative-grade credit of upto 9.25%.

As VanEck noted, Bitcoin miners can leverage their existing powered sites to host AI/HPC workloads in under a year. The lenders priced them as growth credit, charging a sizeable premium compared to the established energy giants.

Bitcoin infrastructure giants are already making the leap

TeraWulf’w Q4 and full-year financial and operational results showed a transition from BTC miner to AI infrastructure player. Major deals such as the long-term lease commitments for 60 MW with Core42 and 380 MW with FluidStack “materially enhance revenue durability”.

Digital asset revenue fell in Q4 2025, compared to Q3. HPC lease revenue was up to $9.7 million from $7.2 million in Q3 2025 too.

Marathon Digital used its Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings call to outline a strategic shift beyond Bitcoin mining. The centerpiece of the shift was the joint venture with Starwood Digital Ventures.

MARA will contribute dedicated energy, while Starwood handles design, construction, tenant sourcing, and operations. MARA can retain upto 50% ownership while receiving access to Starwood’s institutional investment-grade capital.

This venture targets the conversion of its powered sites to data centers. Starwood Capital Group’s data center development platform is expected to deliver more than 1 GW of near-term IT capacity. A pathway to more than 2.5 GW is in place.

As Miner Weekly rightly notes, there is a big question hanging over these developments. The sustained demand for AI would make the premium capital acceptable. Assets would appreciate, and rising revenue would make debt refinancing easier.

On the other hand, a drop-off in AI demand would see hyperscaler buildouts lose momentum. The high debt would quickly become burdensome.

Final Summary

• Fall in Bitcoin prices and rising difficulty meant Bitcoin mining firms saw their digital asset revenue fall in Q4 2025.
• This has made it increasingly attractive and possibly even imperative for large-scale miners to transition a part of their computational capacity to AI/HPC data centers.