Crypto market sentiment hits ‘greed’ levels: Is another October-style crash coming?

Is the crypto market becoming too bullish too soon?

Crypto market sentiment analysis suggests that this might well be the case. According to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, the market is currently in the “Greed” category, having crossed the 70 threshold.

The chart also shows that a similarly high level of greed has occurred right before the BTC price’s 30%+ correction in the October 2025 cycle, which is a significant drop to watch out for.

Furthermore, the overall crypto market cap has risen by over 22% from the previous week. The weekly RSI indicator shows an extremely overbought condition. Remarkably, according to the chart below, during the October 2025 cycle, the RSI indicator did not reach such a level.

In short, the situation in the market is looking very much like the setup for the October breakdown. In addition, there is now a clear risk of profit-taking as the overbought RSI also appears in crypto market data.

As in the past, a similar setup has provided the conditions needed for profit-taking to occur. At the time of writing, there are already several large-cap cryptocurrencies in negative territory. Nevertheless, if the attention is shifted from daily to weekly time frames, the situation changes considerably. 

Crypto market sentiment hasn’t hit peak greed yet

A significant difference stands out, which explains why the crypto market sentiment is poised to evolve.

Crucially, institutional demand drives this divergence. According to SoSoValue, it is currently at the level of over $1 billion flowing into Spot Bitcoin ETFs last week, alongside BTC’s 21% rally.

However, during the October cycle, weekly ETF inflows topped $3 billion. Thus, while institutional demand is indeed on the rise, it is far from the levels of the aforementioned rally, leaving room for further growth.

Meanwhile, this development is particularly noteworthy for the U.S. investors. The Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index peaked at 0.18, suggesting that U.S. buyers were accumulating Bitcoin at a rapid pace before the crypto market sentiment turned to greed.

Notably, this factor appears to be absent this time around.

In other words, the U.S. investor demand did not participate on the level of the previous waves of buying, which makes way for higher spot buying to the next level.

So, the bearish scenario with the crypto market sentiment at the level of 75 is not fully accurate, as there is still the potential for the increase of the demand to the level of “extreme” greed.

Final Summary

• Crypto market sentiment is getting overheated with the Fear & Greed Index above 70 and RSI in the overbought zone, raising pullback risks.
• But ETF and U.S. investor demand are still below October levels, leaving room for more buying and stronger sentiment.