Decoding why APT price holds firm despite $50M Aptos unlock
Aptos market sentiment, network traction and overall demand have declined
Key Takeaways
APT price shunned the past two token unlocks. However, market sentiment and speculative interest were too low to trigger a strong recovery at press time.
Aptos[APT] saw a $50 million token unlock (11.31 million APT) on the 11th of September, 10:00 AM UTC, but the price charts were not impacted.
The unlock was part of the network’s monthly emissions to support its ecosystem and early investors. A spot check at prior unlocks showed no correlation pattern with price.
In fact, during the last month unlock, APT bounced 6%. However, the rally after the emission on the 11th September, led to a negligible spike of 0.94%.
According to some of the Aptos community members, the growing staking demand would quickly absorb the unlock.
Even so, speculative interest and overall market sentiment remained subdued.
Futures market demand declines
Santiment data showed that APT’s weighted sentiment has been in the red since late August.
Although such weak sentiment didn’t derail price action in early July, the fact that speculative interest also waned, signaled weakness.
Since late July, speculative (Open Interest, yellow) has retreated lower, underscoring a lack of demand from the Futures market or leveraged players.
Given that crypto is largely a speculative asset class for most tokens, the weak demand didn’t sit well with near-term bulls.
In contrast, the sharp spike in speculative interest in early July sent APT flying from $4.3 to over $5.5. Simply put, a strong rebound could be confirmed if the Futures market’s appetite for the altcoin improves.
Another bearish data set was the Aptos chain’s DEX volumes. The chain’s ecosystem trading volumes dropped from over $255 million to below $150 million, illustrating a dip in network activity.
As a gas token, the shrinking activity also meant a decline in demand for APT.
Unless these data sets flip positive, APT’s price could remain range-bound below $4.8. However, clearing the overhead resistance trendline could boost APT bulls’ chance of an extended recovery.
