Analysis

ETH bulls suffer a setback after reaching $1750, can they recover?

ETH’s MVRV ratio climbed into positive territory for a fleeting moment on 1 October but quickly fell lower as holders chose to take profits.

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Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion.

  • Ethereum had a strong bullish performance toward the end of September
  • The recent losses meant a move toward $1500 could be next, though on-chain metrics opposed this idea

Ethereum [ETH] rallied 12% within a week as the bulls forced a move higher from $1597 to $1751. Like Bitcoin [BTC], ETH also suffered under bearish pressure that surged on 2 October, driving prices down.


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2023-24


A price report of Ethereum by AMBCrypto from 2 October, written hours before the harsh rejection, observed that the 12-hour chart was flipped bullishly at that time. While the article highlighted volume indicators supported the idea of further gains toward $1900, it also noted that the trading volume and Open Interest had begun to turn, suggesting bearish sentiment could be taking root.

Has Ethereum formed a month-long range?

Source: ETH/USDT on TradingView

The daily chart of Ethereum showed that even though the $1660 level was important for the bulls to seize, the battle was not won there. The bearish breaker block on the one-day chart from 14 June (red box) was still unbeaten.

Moreover, the price formed a range (orange) that extended from $1745 to $1531, with the mid-point at $1640. The mid-range level served as support for the majority of September, reinforcing the credibility of the range. Therefore, the fall below $1640 in the hours before press time signaled that a drop to $1530-$1550 could be imminent.

The brief rally saw the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shoot higher to 68 on 1 October but has receded to 45 since then. This suggested the bullish momentum had waned. Additionally, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) has been in a clear downtrend since July. Hence, until this trend shifts, a bullish breakout past $1700-$1750 would remain unlikely.

An increase in active addresses was a positive that ETH bulls would cherish

Source: Santiment

The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio climbed into positive territory for a fleeting moment on 1 October but quickly fell lower as holders chose to take profits. The dormant circulation didn’t see noticeable spikes since 12 September- hence, significant waves of selling from long-term holders likely hadn’t occurred.


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The mean coin age has also been on the rise during this time, reinforcing the idea derived from the dormant circulation metric. The uptick in active addresses in mid-September was also a positive development for Ethereum.