ETH shows signs of short-term gains but it could be a risky punt for the bulls
Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion.
- Ethereum presented the possibility of another move to Monday’s high
- It was unclear if the bullish conviction was strong enough in the lower timeframes to drive a 3% bounce
Ethereum [ETH] saw a hike in its supply that took it to the highest it has been in the past ten months. The implication of an increased net issuance was a price decline. Additionally, the falling gas fee and declining on-chain activity meant ETH would likely face heightened sell pressure.
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On 13 October, AMBCrypto reported that Ethereum had a pocket of liquidity in the $1595-$1616 region. This area was breached briefly on Monday (16 October) morning following Bitcoin’s volatility. What can traders plan for next, with a higher timeframe resistance zone overhead?
The move past $1600 showed that there could be some more gas in the tank for bulls to utilize
On the one-hour chart, ETH showed a strong bullish outlook. Its market structure was bullish and has been so since 13 October when it climbed above $1555. The former near-term resistance zone from $1585-$1600 has been shifted to a support zone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was above neutral 50 and highlighted buyers were more dominant.
However, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) has been in a firm downtrend over the past week. This was a discouraging finding for the buyers. It reflected the higher timeframe bias of ETH. The daily and 12-hour charts reflected bears were dominant. The range (orange) was one that ETH has traded within since late August. Moreover, the $1630-$1750 was a resistance zone from mid-June.
Hence, buyers can look to enter long positions at the $1585-$1600 zone targeting the mid-range mark at $1640. A tight stop-loss at the $1566-$1573 area can be considered as this trade could be extra risky. Bitcoin [BTC] sat at the $28.5k resistance at press time and could have a large influence on ETH.
The sharp decline in OI meant speculator confidence was severely shaken
Monday’s New York session saw wild volatility on the back of Cointelegraph’s inaccurate tweet regarding the Blackrock Bitcoin ETF, one that they have already apologized for. This saw the Open Interest (OI) plummet wildly as ETH pumped to $1640 and dumped minutes later.
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The fall in OI was followed by a bounce as bullish speculators entered the market but didn’t reflect strong conviction. However, the continued ascent of the spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) was a positive development in the past 12 hours. This supported the idea that ETH could climb to $1640 or higher before floundering at the HTF resistance above $1660.