Ethereum at 3-year low against Bitcoin? – History says THIS comes next…

As the big caps keep breaking support and major unwinds hit, investors are rushing to hedge their risk. Historically, moves like this often push capital into altcoins as a safety valve against volatility.

Notably, the altcoin market is holding steady around the 40 mark.

The Altcoin Season Index hasn’t taken any major hits, which tells us that capital rotation into alternative assets is quietly happening under the surface.

That said, a full-blown altcoin season is still far off. Ethereum [ETH] dominance has slipped back to 2021 levels, and $2,100 has just given way. It looks like ETH is setting up for another rough run against Bitcoin [BTC].

As the chart showed, the ETH/BTC ratio hasn’t seen a single green year since 2022 and is already down 12% so far this year.

Naturally, the question arises: Is Ethereum losing its “hedge” status year after year?

On the bullish side, BitMine (BMNR) has been stacking ETH, sparking some FOMO. So far, though, it hasn’t moved the price. To make matters worse, BMNR is now sitting on a record $7 billion in unrealized losses.

Meanwhile, Vitalik Buterin made headlines by selling 2,779 ETH for $6.22 million over the past three days, at an average price of $2,238. All this is adding fuel to the ongoing Ethereum FUD, keeping the market on edge.

As a result, with every support taken out, ETH’s risk keeps climbing. In this context, traders have to weigh Ethereum’s vulnerabilities against potential upside elsewhere, putting ETH’s support at higher stakes than its rivals.

Ethereum traders weigh ETH risk vs reward against rivals

Zoom out, and Ethereum is already losing ground to its counterparts.

At the macro level, ETH’s yearly returns have dropped to -30%, the worst among other high-cap altcoins. Add back-to-back FUD headlines and recent selling by major players, and holding onto ETH starts to feel riskier.

On-chain, the weakness is showing too. Ethereum’s buy/sell delta has flipped red for the first time since the “Liberation Day” FUD in Q2 2025, signaling selling pressure is taking over and sentiment is turning cautious.

Taken together, the current setup is clearly skewed toward risk. 

Against this setup, the ETH/BTC ratio falling 12% isn’t a fluke. Traders are rotating capital, as highlighted by the Altcoin Season Index, suggesting that while Ethereum struggles, the altcoin market is quietly holding its ground.

In this context, the $2k ETH support level remains at high risk. Another meaningful push up against Bitcoin and other altcoins looks unlikely right now, with the ETH/BTC ratio set to continue its downtrend deeper into Q1.

Final Thoughts

• With support levels breaking, Ethereum is facing rising risk, internal FUD, and heavy selling, making it harder to hold dominance against Bitcoin.
• Traders are rotating capital into altcoins, showing that while ETH struggles, alternative assets are holding their ground.