Ethereum price prediction – Can Arthur Hayes’ $7.8mln bet fuel $2.2K?

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes seems to be increasing Ethereum exposure. According to on-chain data, Hayes-linked addresses have received a total of 4.4K ETH in the past two days. 

Notably, the 0x795d wallet received 1.4K ETH worth 2.51 million from FalconX in the past few hours. Earlier in the week, the same wallet received 3K ETH ($5.43M) from Flowdesk. As of writing, this wallet holds $7.8M worth of ETH. 

Worth noting that the same address sold nearly $700K Worldcoin [WLD] last week, further confirming Hayes recent sell-off citing SpaceX IPO.

In fact, the crypto investor dumped NEAR, HYPE, and other altcoins ahead of the SpaceX IPO, claiming that the debut would affect crypto liquidity. 

Surprisingly, the opposite happened. Bitcoin bottomed out again near $60K and bounced to nearly $67K, lifting the altcoins he dumped. 

So, what changed, and why is he quietly repositioning on the largest altcoin? 

ETH: U.S-Iran hopes meet Fed rate decision

First, today will mark the first Fed rate decision under the new chair, Kevin Warsh. But before that, the relief rally seen this week followed the widely anticipated U.S-Iran deal.

While past declared deals fell apart shortly afterwards, it is not clear whether this latest one will hold. 

If it holds, then oil prices will continue to fall, effectively boosting risk sentiment and easing inflation fears.

In fact, oil prices fell to $75, the lowest in two months, on the expected U.S-Iran deal. Worth pointing out, BTC and broader crypto rallied as oil prices dropped. The changing geopolitical tensions could explain Hayes’ new positioning on ETH. 

After dropping to a yearly low of $1.5K, the ETH price recovered nearly 20% to over $1.8K. As of writing, the altcoin dropped slightly to $1.76K ahead of the Fed rate decision. It was unclear whether the Warsh’s Fed rate decision would derail the rally. 

What’s next for the ETH price?

Separately, the U.S. Spot ETH ETF saw two days of daily net inflows totaling $32M, underscoring a bullish start to the week. 

While the macro and geopolitical will determine ETH’s near-term swings, Nansen had earlier warned that ETH was still missing key catalysts for a strong rebound. 

Even so, the MVRV pricing bands showed ETH has dropped below a key level (blue line) that marked the February 2026 local and 2022 bear market bottoms. As such, the $1.5K was a great discount if history repeats.

The next upside target would be $2.2K if $1.8K support is decisively reclaimed, implying a 20% potential gain. 

Final Summary

• Arthur Hayes has increased his ETH exposure by $7.84M after dumping several altcoins last week
• If the U.S.-Iran deal holds, there is a potential for an extra 20% ETH rally to $2.2K