Ethereum’s LTH anxiety emerges amid $3,200 battle – Here’s why

• Long-term holder sentiment shifts to the optimism-anxiety phase as NUPL enters yellow territory while ETH consolidates.
• Strong accumulation continues with 12 million addresses holding 62.27 million ETH.

As Ethereum[ETH] hovered around $3,200, a subtle but significant shift occurred beneath the surface. Long-Term Holders (LTH), often considered the ‘smart money’ of the crypto market, are showing the first signs of anxiety since November 2024.

This change in sentiment paints a complex picture of market psychology at a crucial price level.

Ethereum’s LTH sentiment analysis

Analysis of Ethereum’s Long-Term Holder NUPL chart shows a critical shift. The chart shows the bars returning to the optimism-anxiety phase (yellow bars) after maintaining confidence levels (green bars) since November 2024.

This transition to yellow territory, with readings around 0.48, suggests LTHs are entering a period of uncertainty, potentially due to Ethereum’s recent price action near the $3,200 level.

Price action and technical structure

Ethereum was trading at $3,217, at press time, showing signs of consolidation after recent volatility. The price structure reveals several key levels.

The formation of higher lows since December 2024 suggests strengthening support, with the $2,800-$2,900 range acting as a crucial buffer zone.

The 50-day Moving Average(MA) at $3,433 has consistently provided dynamic support, while the 200-day MA at $2,900 reinforces the long-term bullish structure.

Resistance levels cluster around $3,205-$3,345, aligning with underwater holder positions identified through Global In/Out of the Money data.

This zone represents a significant technical and psychological barrier that must be cleared for continued upward momentum.

Global In/Out of the Money analysis

Current data shows over 12 million addresses holding over 62.27 million Ethereum, with an average acquisition price of $2,425.31.

The concentration of holders who acquired ETH between $2,233.15 and $2,612.05 remains significant, though the shift to the anxiety phase suggests these support zones might face increased testing.

The overhead resistance above $3,205.97 appears more formidable, given the current sentiment shift.

ETH’s accumulation trends and market dynamics

Despite the sentiment shift, the Accumulation/Distribution indicator maintains its upward trajectory, reaching almost 48M. This creates an interesting divergence: while LTHs express anxiety, underlying accumulation patterns remain robust.

Thus, the contradiction could suggest a period of price discovery ahead as the market resolves this tension.

Market implications for Ethereum

The recent transition to the optimism-anxiety phase (yellow bars) in the NUPL metric suggests a critical juncture for Ethereum.

While technical structures remain bullish and accumulation continues, the emerging anxiety among LTHs could lead to increased volatility in the near term.

– Read Ethereum (ETH) Price Prediction 2025-26

The market faces a key test: whether the continued accumulation trend can offset potential selling pressure from anxious LTHs.

The resolution of this dynamic will likely determine price direction, with particular attention to the $3,200-$3,400 resistance zone and support levels around the 50-day MA.