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Examining Raydium’s 280% monthly surge and what’s next for RAY’s price
AMBCrypto found that RAY might be overextended in the short-term and may be due for a correction.
- Raydium gained by nearly 300% in price as fees increased by more than 10x from September
- The sudden, swift gains have led to an overextended RAY market
Raydium [RAY] rallied by 280% from 10 October to 9 November, before facing a pullback on the charts. The Automated Market Maker (AMM) and liquidity provider on the Solana [SOL] blockchain saw a rapid hike in fees over the last 30 days too.
Source: DefiLlama
On 21 October, Raydium accrued daily fees of $3.4 million, surpassing Ethereum’s [ETH] $3.35 million for the same day. Here, it should be noted that Ethereum has seen a steady drop in fees since the Dencun upgrade in March.
Raydium revenue up by leaps and bounds
Source: DefiLlama
In September, Raydium’s fees were hovering around the $300k-mark. On 13 November, it hit $10.73 million, with revenue at $693.36k. Fees are collected from swaps and a portion of this is used to market buy RAY and distribute it to token stakers.
The swift hike in revenue can be attributed majorly to the rising popularity of memecoins in the Solana network. This drove up the demand for SOL and yielded higher fees for Raydium, driving RAY prices up due to greater demand.
Source: Santiment
AMBCrypto found that RAY might be overextended in the short term and may be due for a correction. The 30-day MVRV Ratio was at 26.37% and hit a local high of 67.3% on 09 November.
The spike in Dormant Circulation during that time revealed greater token movement. This likely pointed to a hike in selling pressure from profit-taking activity.
Also, the Mean Coin Age (MCA) has been falling since September, but it began to recover over the last few days. However, at press time, it was not signaling accumulation yet. Thus, further profit-taking activity can be expected and this could suppress Raydium token prices.
RAY price charts suggest a dip towards $3.5 is possible
Source: RAY/USDT on TradingView
On the price charts, the technical indicators remained strongly bullish. After a rejection at $6, the RSI dropped from 83.66 to 62.3, which was still a healthy bullish figure. The OBV continued to trend higher, indicating strong buying pressure. Additionally, trading volume was also seen rising over the past month.
Read Raydium’s [RAY] Price Prediction 2024-25
Finally, the Fibonacci retracement levels underlined the $3.78 and $3.26 levels as the ones to watch.
In the short term, the $4-level can also act as a wind vane to tell if the bears have begun to drive a deeper pullback.
